構建水資源、能源與糧食交織系統風險評估方法-以金門地區為例

Abstract

2012 年里約高峰會(RIO 20+)後，水、能源與糧食的被認為是現代化社會 中重要且不可或缺的資源。然而隨著科技進步、經濟發展、都市擴張以及全球 人口增加，全世界對於水、能源與糧食的需求不斷增加。以往國際上對於水、 能源與糧食三項資源系統的風險分析方法與調適策略，多以分別探討個資源本 身議題的方式進行分析，然而由於資源彼此相互依存具有交織關係，一個缺乏 多方面考量的資源調適策略，將對於其他造成嚴重的衝擊，而造成整體水、能 源與糧食交織系統更大的風險。 因此斯德哥爾摩環境研究所(2011)於德國 Bonn 研討會中，提出第一個 水、能源與糧食交織模型，此報告中提出在進行資源風險分析與策略選定時， 不能只再考量單一資源內部的安全性，應該有整體性、全面性的分析，探討相 互依存之關係，藉由將三個資源串連的水、能源與糧食交織模型進行資源安全 性分析，才能有最合適的調適方針。 因此本研究根據水、能源與糧食資源流盤查結果，將資源間交織關係與資 源的供給與需求總量進行量化，構建都市尺度下水、能源與糧食交織模型;並 利用歷年資源使用習慣探討需求變化趨勢，以設定情境評估未來可能的資源風 險，並利用此評估方式探討調適策略對該地區的資源安全性效益。 本研究藉由金門地區為案例，透過金門地區 WEF 交織分析，建立金門地區 水、能源與糧食交織模型並評估金門地區資源交織風險，根據金門地區不同水 資源變化情境下資源的安全性，提出合適的調適策略，使金門地區水、能源與 糧食可以在近十年內維持安全穩定供給。結果顯示，金門地區主要資源的問題 集中在水資源，而導致水資源處於高風險狀態的主要原因是，水資源蘊藏量不足，再加上金門高粱酒生產方式需要大量水資源，產生嚴重地下水超抽，為解 決水資源風險，藉由分析不同調適策略對於能源、糧食的影響後，以大陸供水 以及 EDI-海水淡化技術，對於整體金門水、能源與糧食交織系統安全性最有 成效，然而由於地緣政治關係，大陸供水系統將降低金門地區水資源自給率， 故本研究建議，以 EDI-海水淡化技術作為解決策略，不但使水資源系統可以 處於安全供給的情形，並且將不導致能源、與糧食系統產生供需風險。

Ever since the Summit of RIO 20+, water, energy and food had been recognized as three indispensable resources in the modern society. However, with the advance of technology, progress of economy, expansion of urban cities and growth of global population, demands of water, energy and food are dramatically increasing. From the conventional perspective, the risk analysis methods and adaptive strategies in terms of respective resource system concerning water, energy and food explore more on the issues associated with the resource itself; nevertheless, because of the interlinked relationships of these three resources, a resource-based adaptive strategy lacking of comprehensive consideration will cause severe influences on the other factors, further leading to a greater risk among the whole nexus of water, energy and food. Therefore, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) proposed the first model of water, energy and food in the Bonn seminar of Germany in 2011, which mentioned that risk analysis on resources and selections of strategies, shouldn’t merely consider the interior security of one single resource but have a comprehensive analysis on the interlinkage. Analyzing security of resources based on nexus-model of water, energy and food allows researchers to have the best adaptive strategy. Also, this study constructed a urban-scaled model of regional water and nexus of food and energy (WEF Nexus) by quantifying aggregations of supplies and demands on resources, which was according to results from resource flow analysis of water, energy and food system. Also, scenario analysis was performed by following the historical data of the use of resources to explore the variations on resources demands. The method is able to assess the security benefits brought by the adaptations to the region. Using Kinmen as a case, this study built up a model of regional nexus of water, food and energy, and evaluated of the risks in resources. The study suggests suitable adaptations based on different conditions of water resources in the region. Therefore, the supply of water, energy, and food might be stable within nearly a decade. The result shows that the main resource problem in Kinmen is water due to lack of water reserves. Moreover, to manufacture Sorghum wine, factories in Kinmen overpumped groundwater. It also leads to the effect. To lower the risk caused by the water problem, the study analyzed various adjustments and found that the best solution includes water supply from Mainland China, waste water recycling and EDI, technology of desalination. However, because of geopolitical reasons, the study suggests to take waste water recycling and EDI desalination as the priority. Not only will it enable water resources to be supplied more securely and stably, but also it will not disturb the supplyof food and energy