民主意識與兩岸經貿：臺灣民眾貿易態度的分析

Abstract

本文的研究問題為，臺灣民眾為何會反對兩岸經貿？本文嘗試納入過去文獻所忽略的重要因素──臺灣民眾的民主意識，作為主要的解釋變項。本文認為，民主意識程度較高的民眾，在思考與兩岸經貿的議題時，由於中國大陸「威權政體」符號的作用，會比較容易產生負面的印象、喚起負面的訊息，因此根據符號政治途徑的解釋，會傾向反對兩岸經貿。除此之外，本文亦檢驗經濟自利途徑變數（如就業產業、技術能力、主觀經濟評估等）及符號政治途徑變數（國家優越感及光榮感、國家主權意識、文化保護意識、國族認同、統獨立場、政黨偏好、臺灣意識等）對於臺灣民眾兩岸經貿態度的影響。 為了驗證上述變數的作用，本文利用臺灣社會變遷基本調查6期4次國家認同組問卷進行統計分析。研究結果顯示，民主意識程度越高的民眾，的確越有可能反對兩岸經貿。此外，無論經濟自利變數還是符號政治變數都可以解釋臺灣民眾為何會反對兩岸經貿。最後，本文也發現民主意識是那些不反對自由貿易的民眾，之所以會反對兩岸經貿的獨特原因。

Why do some Taiwanese people disagree with the government on the trade policy with China? Do someone’s democratic values make an impact on his or her opinion about the trade issue with China? To answer this question, there are two main research approaches that we can adopt, i.e. “Self-Interest Approach” and “Symbolic Politics Approach”. From the viewpoint of the self-interest approach, people support the policy which might benefit them and oppose the policy which might hurt them. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of the symbolic politics approach, people support the policy because the image of that policy acts in accordance with their long-term political identity. On the basis of symbolic politics approach, my hypothesis is that those who have greater democratic values are more likely to disagree the policy of expanding the trade relationship with China. To examine the hypothesis, I use the survey data of Taiwan Social Change Survey (survey year: 2013, 6 round 4th year, survey topic: national identity). The result shows that Taiwanese people who have greater democratic values do have a greater probability of disagreeing on expanding trade relationship with China. Moreover, this article shows that both self-interest approach and symbolic politics approach can explain the differences in individual preferences over cross-strait trade policy. In conclusion, those who have a positive view on free trade but a negative view on cross-strait trade tend to have greater democratic values. Based on these observations, we could say that when talking about trade issues with China, Taiwanese people care not only the profitability but also the democratic performance of China.