一帶一路對全球經濟的影響

Abstract

「一帶一路」政策提出透過路上絲綢之路經濟帶，以及中南半島連接太平洋 與印度洋的 21 世紀海上絲綢之路架構出六條經濟走廊，希望透過提出一個新型 態的合作機制來加強各國間貿易之交通基礎建設並提升中國與外界貿易關係。一 帶一路參與國高達 60 多個國家，沿線國家產能影響著全世界經濟的運行，因此 本研究透過 GTAP 模型來預測在交通基礎建設改善之下對於各參與國與非參與國 的影響，研究結果發現對於各參與國而言加入一帶一路政策在實質 GDP 面有正向幫助，而對於非參與國而言則是負面的影響。

The ' Belt and Road ' policy proposes that they construct six economic corridors by the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century oceangoing Maritime Silk Road which connect the Pacific and Indian Ocean in the Indochina Peninsula. The policy tries to upgrade the transport infrastructure to bridge the infrastructure gap, and enhance the trading connection between China and other countries. The coverage area of the initiative is primarily Asia and Europe, encompassing around 60 countries. Those participating countries have huge influence to the world economy, therefore this study used the GTAP model to predict the improvement in traffic infrastructure for the participating countries and non-participating countries. We can find that through the policy it can accelerate economic growth for the participating countries, but it will have negative effect on the real GDP for non-participating countries.