國際林產品出口貿易競爭力及其影響因素分析

Abstract

以原木作為原料的林產品已成為生活中不可或缺之商品，而林產品的全球貿易更是值得探討的議題。本文主要之研究目的為分析26個樣本國家的林產品出口貿易競爭力，利用主成份分析將四個競爭力指標以及CMS模型的競爭力效果分成「主要競爭力」以及「潛在競爭力」兩項，並藉由結構方程模式來分析Porter鑽石模型、固定市場份額模型(CMS模型)與競爭力指標理論之間的關係，以及對林產品出口貿易競爭力的影響因素作進一步的解釋。 本文所分析之競爭力指標分別為顯示性比較優勢指數(RCA)、貿易特化係數(TSC)、出口市場佔有率(EMS)、出口增長優勢指數(ERA)。分析資料是根據聯合國商品貿易統計數據庫(UN comtrade)之林產品出口值之數據，在對於全球林產品出口貿易情況作一個概述之後，再利用這些數據分別依以上不同的競爭力衡量方式作分析。 即使目前林產品主要出口貿易國家仍然集中在北美洲以及歐洲這些發展國家，但結果顯示近十年來成長率愈趨上升之林產品貿易國家其重要性不可忽視，尤其是中國、波蘭這兩個國家的最具有潛力以及競爭力。 為了提升林產品貿易的競爭力所需要的因素包括有高出口成長率、較低的供給價格、良善的森林經營制度、合理的採伐量、以及愈來愈被重視的森林認證，相關經營管理單位可藉由朝這些方向改進以提升國家的林產品出口貿易競爭力。

The forest products which are made by wood are essential nowadays. The issue of the forest product trade in the global market is taken more seriously. The objective of the presented study is to analyze the export competitiveness of 26 sample countries in the international timber markets. This article divided the four competitiveness indices and the competitiveness effect of the CMS model into “main competitiveness” and “potential competitiveness” by Principal Component Analysis. Besides, this article also analyzes the relations between the results of Porter's Diamond Model, Constant Market Share, and theorem about the four competitiveness indices by the Structural Equation Models (SEM) Analysis. By using the SEM, we can explain the relations between the competitiveness and its influencing factor of the forest products. The four competitiveness indices are Revealed Comparative Advantage Index(RCA), Export Market Share(EMS), the index of export rise advantage(ERA), and Trade Specialization Coefficient(TSC). The original export data are from UN comtrade. After summarizing the situation of the international timber markets, this article used these four indices to analyzing the competitiveness. Although the major export countries are in the North America and Europe, the results reveal the importance of the countries which rise the growth rate of the export in the last decade, especially China and Poland which are the most potential and have the competitiveness. To improve the competitiveness, this article recommended high export growth rate, low supply price, good forest management, appropriate wood removal, and the forest certification as the measures for relevant government agencies.