運用現金流量信用風險模型評估營造公司之財務資格預審

Abstract

工程招標時，營建廠商資格預審是一個很重要及須高度優先關注的課題，因為工程的成敗與承包廠商的能力是高度相關的。因此，在招標過程中把不合格廠商篩選出來對業主而言是非常重要的。資格預審是一個決策過程，其過程包含很多不同的評估標準。早期廠商資格預審的研究主要是透過特性權重法來篩選合格的廠商，然而此方法的權重計算是根據評審委員們的評估標準來訂定的，並無標準的計算及評估方式，因此評估結果會被評審委員個人的主觀意見所影響。 本研究引用Liao and Chen (2006)所發展的現金流量基礎模型來評估營建廠商的信用風險分數，進而了解其公司財務狀況，達到財務資格預審之目的。因現金流量能有效的反應出營建廠商是否具有履行其財務責任的能力。在工程進行時，若承包廠商因財務狀況不佳而面臨債務拖欠或是破產的危機，這將導致其興建中的工程延遲或是失敗。因此，對營建管理而言如何去評估及選擇具有財務能力的承包廠商是一個很重要的議題。透過營建公司的歷年每季現金流，本研究應用之現金流量基礎模型可模擬出該公司的信用風險分數。最後再採用接受者操作特徵曲線 (ROC Curve) 衡量本模型判別各營建廠商之未來三年信用風險分數的能力，以判斷本模型於營建產業信用風險評估之適用性。 根據本研究結果顯示，此現金流量基礎模型在判別營建廠商的信用風險時具有相常良好的判別能力。由此可知，本模型非常適用於評估營建產業的信用風險。此外，此模型僅需會計報表中的現金流量資訊，適用於上市以及非上市之營建公司，更能廣泛地應用於營建產業之信用風險評量上。

The prequalification of construction contractors are highly prioritized step in awarding construction project. The success or failure of any construction project is influenced by the performance of a contractor. It is an important issue for construction owner to screen out any incapable contractors during the tender stage. Contractor prequalification is a decision process involves in wide variety of selection criterion. Previous contractor prequalification incorporated dimensional weighting method to select an appropriate contractor. However, the weight for selection criterion relies on the subjective judgments of construction owner. In contrast, the dimension wide method compares contractors with one criterion at a time to avoid subjective judgment. This study employ a cash flow based credit model proposed by Liao and Chen (2006) to assess the contractors’ credit score as contractor’s financial prequalification. The cash flows mainly reflect contractor’s capability to meet its financial obligations. A failure of construction contractor may have problems completing the project. Therefore, it is critical to select a financial capable contractor in construction management. The cash flow credit model uses historical quarterly free cash flow to firm of construction contractors to simulate credit quality score. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve is employed to evaluate the model’s discriminatory performance in ranking the credit score of construction contractors for three years. The empirical results show that the cash flow credit model achieves an excellent discriminatory performance in assessing the credit score of construction contractors. The cash flow based credit model proves to be useful in assessing credit risk of construction contractors. The model is applicable to both public listed and private construction contractors as it only requires information from financial statement.