兩岸三地的貿易流量與貿易潛能分析－引力模型之運用

Abstract

本研究利用引力模型，以1991年到2012年兩岸三地(香港、中國大陸與台灣)的前一百大貿易對手國的貿易與相關資料進行實證，探討影響兩岸三地貿易的要素以及邊界效果，同時利用該模型計算出預估貿易額並和實際貿易數值做比較。實證結果如下： 1. 母國的國內生產毛額(GDP)、對手國的國內生產毛額、兩地是否同為亞洲太平洋經濟合作組織(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC)的成員以及語言會正向影響兩岸三地的出口以及貿易，距離則會反向影響。 2. 中國大陸與臺灣的貿易實際值在1991年到2003年小於預估值，顯示這段時間內兩地有貿易潛力未發揮，2004年到2012年實際值大於預估值，顯示兩地貿易潛力已經完全開發。 3. 中國大陸與香港的貿易實際值在觀測期間內大於預估值甚多，顯示兩地貿易潛力已經完全開發及香港扮演中國對外貿易的中介角色。香港與臺灣的貿易實際值大於預估值，顯示兩地貿易潛力已經完全開發且彼此的貿易關係緊密。 4. 兩岸三地的貿易實際值大於預估值，顯示兩岸三地內彼此的貿易關係緊密。 5. 中國大陸與台灣不存在邊界效果，顯示兩地的貿易緊密度未達應有的水準。 6. 中國大陸與香港有異常高度的邊界效果，但是該邊界效果逐年下降，顯示香港的轉口貿易角色在喪失中。香港與臺灣有邊界效果且其效果不受時間推演而消失或增強。 7. 兩岸三地於觀測期間內沒有顯著異常的邊界效果，顯示兩岸三地不存在有貿易區塊。

This study uses gravity model to estimate the determinants of trade flows, border effect and trade potential in Greater China Area (Hong Kong, Mainland China and Taiwan) from 1991 to 2012. Findings of this study are summarized as follows: 1. Home countries’ GDP, trading partners’ GDP, language and the membership of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) have a positive effect on trade, while the distance factor has a negative influence on it. 2. The actual trade flows between Mainland China and Taiwan are much lower than the trade potential until 2003. From 2004 to 2012 the actual trade flows exceed the trade potential, meaning that the trade potential is exploited. 3. The actual trade flows between Mainland China and Hong Kong are much higher than the trade potential, indicating that the trade potential between Mainland China and Hong Kong is exploited, and that Hong Kong fills the role of trading agent when Mainland China trading with other countries. The actual trade flows between Hong Kong and Taiwan are higher than the trade potential, meaning that the trade potential between Hong Kong and Taiwan is exploited and the trade relation between Hong Kong and Taiwan is close. 4. The actual trade flows in Greater China Area are higher than the trade potential, which can be a valuable piece of evidence for a deep trade relation in Greater China Area. 5. The border effect between Mainland China and Taiwan is not found, which can hardly stand for a close trade relation between Mainland China and Taiwan. 6. The border effect between Mainland China and Hong Kong is very high but declines from year to year, indicating that Hong Kong’s importance is declining in intermediary trade. The border effect between Hong Kong and Taiwan is high and keeps fast constant in the sample period. 7. Enormous and significant border effect in Greater China Area is not found in the sample period, indicating that a trading bloc does not exist in Greater China Area.