新農保政策對中國農村中老年勞動供給的影響

Abstract

作為世界人口第一大國，中國正面臨日益嚴峻的人口老化問題。在日益增加的老齡人口中，70%來自於農村，再加上農村缺乏完善的養老保障體系，農村老年人口的養老問題成為一大挑戰。2009年開始在農村地區實施的新型農村社會養老保險（簡稱「新農保」）政策填補了中國大陸農村長久以來養老保障的缺口，然而究竟能否改變老年人「老無所養」的現狀依然有待評估。鑒於此，本研究利用中國健康與養老追蹤調查（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study，簡稱CHARLS）2011全國基線數據從勞動供給角度切入對新農保的政策效果進行評估，探討新農保對農村中老年勞動參與及工作時間之影響效果。 實證結果顯示，新農保對農村中老年人的勞動供給確實產生了排擠效果，有效減少了工作時間，但是並沒有對勞動參與的可能性產生顯著的影響，因此未從根本上改變農村中老年人「不停止勞作」的工作狀態，養老金水平過低以及新農保政策實施時間太短是重要的原因。本研究還發現，新農保對60歲以下中年人和60歲以上老年人的工作時間有著程度不同的影響，由於60歲以上老年人單純受新農保所得效應的負向作用，其減少工作時間的幅度更為明顯。此外，對於男性、健康狀況較差，家庭經濟水平不好，工作類型為自我僱傭的人，新農保對工作時間的排擠效果更為明顯。 依據研究結果，本研究提出了相應的政策建議，包括擴大新農保覆蓋面、提高養老金水平以及保障低收入者的參保能力等。

As the world’s most populous country, China is facing the increasingly serious problem of an aging population. Of the growing aging population, 70% come from rural areas. Due to the lack of a public pension system in the rural areas, the pension issue has become a major challenge for the rural elderly population. The New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSPI) system implemented in 2009 has filled the gap of China’s rural pension system that has been suspended since 1997. However, whether or not it can improve the economic well-beings of rural elders requires further evaluation. In this study, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011 national baseline data was adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of the NRSPI, from the perspective of labor supply. Empirical findings show that the NRSPI has a “crowding-out effect” on the labor supply of rural elders. The policy significantly reduces the working hours but has an insignificant impact on the probability of participating in the labor force. The “ceaseless toil” working conditions of rural elders in China have not been fundamentally changed, mainly due to the excessively low pension standard and the short implementation time of the NRSPI. The results also reveal that rural elders aged below and above 60 years old respond differently to the NRSPI. Due to the income effect, the crowding-out effect of the NRSPI for rural elders aged above 60 years old is more obvious than the ones aged below 60. In addition, the crowing-out impacts of the NRSPI on working hours are also larger, for men and those with poor health, low family economic level, and under the self-employed occupation category. Accordingly, the policy recommendation may include extending the NRSPI coverage, increasing the pension income level, and protecting low-income individuals’ right to join insurance.