探討國片票房破億之成功因素 ─以 2008 年至 2013 年國片為例

Abstract

2008 年《海角七號》顛覆台灣電影的長期的頹勢,創下全台灣首輪戲院 5.3 億元 的票房紀錄,也為台灣電影市場帶來新風潮,2008 年至 2013 年共有 12 部國片創下全 台灣破億元的票房佳績。近年來有國內多針對特定幾部國片進行質性研究、或研究美 國電影票房,國外的票房研究亦行之有年,但較少針對近年國片進行全面性的量化票 房研究。 本研究試圖找出 2008 年至 2013 年國片中,在相同規模的情況下,探討國片票房 破億元的成功因素為何,希望能對未來的國片票房進行預測。研究方法結合量化與質 化分析,量化部分使用「逐步迴歸分析」,將國片相關變項分為「票房與上映前之變 項」與「票房與上映後之變項」兩類。研究結果發現,票房與上映前之變項中,「卡 司─導演」與「本土題材」為關鍵變項;票房與上映後之變項中,「上映第一週」、 「上映第二週」、「上映第三週後」的新聞報導及「上映天數」為關鍵因素。 質化分析則針對量化無法涵蓋的部分─新聞報導內容研究與口碑效應影響加以 討論。結果發現新聞較常報導具有話題性的內容,其中演員最能帶來話題性;上映前 的新聞以演員相關的報導最多,上映後則以演員與票房的報導為主要主題。口碑效應 探討中,使用每週票房趨勢圖分析,發現《海角七號》、《那些年,我們一起追的女 孩》、《痞子英雄首部曲:全面開戰》、《陣頭》、《BBS 鄉民的正義》、《逆光飛 翔》、《大尾鱸鰻》、《總舖師》等八部片具有口碑效應,但只有《海角七號》與《陣頭》兩部片與每週新聞數量的趨勢吻合,其他皆存在些許變異性。

The movie “Cape No. 7” in 2008 has set the record of Taiwan Cinema, and changed the declining tendency of Taiwanese films. From 2008 to 2013, there have been 12 Taiwan Cinema with box-office over a hundred million NT dollars. Although there have been former researches on Taiwan Cinema using qualitative research method, and a few researches analyzing the success factors of Hollywood motion pictures in Taiwan, there has not been comprehensive research on the box-office of Taiwan Cinema with quantitative research method. This research uses both quantitative and qualitative research method, in order to target the success factors of Taiwan Cinema from 2008 to 2013. In the quantitative research section, we separate the factors into “Before Exhibition” and “After Exhibition”, and run the Stepwise Regression respectively. The study shows the factors of “Director” and “Local Subject” are significance in the “Before Exhibition” part, and that the factors of the numbers of news reported “First Week of Exhibition”, “Second Week of Exhibition”, “After Three Weeks of Exhibition”, and “Total Days of Exhibition” are significance in the “After Exhibition” part. In the qualitative research section, we look into the relation between box-office, the content of relative news about Taiwan Cinema, and the word-of-mouth effect. We conclude that the news about films tend to focus mainly on the actors and the box-office after exhibition. In Word-of-mouth effect section we use the Trend Chart by weekly box-office to understand the trend, and find out that there are 8 motion pictures fitting in the definition of word-of-mouth. The trend of “Cape No. 7” and “Din Tao: Leader of the Parade” are also in accordance with the numbers of the news by week.