柯文哲與民粹主義語言：以兩次台北市長選戰為例

Abstract

隨著世界各地，包含歐美等先進國家陸續出現政治素人、或是以個人魅力（charisma）為號召的候選人出現並勝選，民粹主義（populism）似乎開始逐漸深入世界各地的選舉，近年在台灣亦能感受到民粹主義的影響力，近年來國內也興起了爭論誰是符合民粹主義概念的政治人物的話題。在民粹主義的概念在全世界開始大量被使用的時代中，其實學界中對於如何界定民粹主義的概念已有著長期的辯論與探討，學者們分別嘗試從政治策略、話語、風格、意識形態等各種不同的概念途徑進行研究。 本文將民粹主義定義為一種言語框架（discursive frame），認為民粹主義展現於政治人物為了動員群眾而訴諸於公開發言之中，並以量化的文字探勘為主、質性文獻分析為輔進行研究。本文主要聚焦於柯文哲2014、2018 年兩場台北市長的選舉，這分別是身為政治素人的柯文哲崛起、以及挑戰連任的選戰，柯文哲被認為是台灣近期民粹領袖代表之一。本文透過柯文哲選舉中報導的發言，透過文字探勘研究使用民粹主義言語的程度，以及利用LDA 主題模型結合當時的大環境檢驗其具體的議題立場。本文發現，柯文哲雖然在第一次選舉時公開發言的民粹主義程度較對手高，但第二次選舉卻相對的最不依靠民粹主義，並且在2014 年、2018 年的台北市長選舉當中，身為挑戰者的候選人，不分黨派皆會在接近投票日時增加民粹主義的訊息。從LDA 主題模型來看，柯文哲也缺乏穩定的議題立場，對未來團結支持群眾不利。但整體而言，柯文哲第一次選舉的表現仍可被認為較具有民粹主義的色彩，因其傳遞了大量人民中心主義的訊息。

There have been more and more political newcomers winning election as well as candidates running election through presenting their personal charisma for more votes around worldwide, including developed democracy countries such as the UK and the US, it seems that electoral populism is penetrating deeper into the elections around the world. Recently, there's also debate about populism in Taiwan with regard to the definition of a populist. The concept of populism is widely recognized and discussed in the recent years, but the fact is that researchers have actually conducted research on populism long before, trying to make clear of the concept of populism as political strategy, discourse, style, ideology, and so on. In this study, populism is considered to be a discursive frame. In other words, political figures with populism would mobilize the voters by appealing discourse in public. The study will focus on a political newcomer in Taiwan, Wen-je Ko, in the two Taipei mayoral elections in 2014 and 2018. Ko won the election as a newcomer challenger against KMT and was re-elected in 2018 by his growing popularity. The study will mainly be conducted by quantitative text analysis to analyze the public discourse of Ko, aiming at understanding to what extent did Ko use populist words during elections and comparing his discourse between the two elections. In addition, LDA topic model will be used to analyze Ko’s political position during elections. It is found that while Ko surly used more populist discourse than his rival in the first election, his populist discourse comparatively became lower in the second election, and even his political position has obviously changed. It’s suggested compared with other populist abroad, Ko’s populist feature is unclear, but he had surly expressed certain people-centered message during elections.