台灣DRAM產業結構動態與廠商競爭策略分析

Abstract

本研究之目的在於以「結構-行為-績效（S-C-P）」的分析架構，結合賽局理論的概念與系統動態分析的方法，探討在商品化產品的寡佔市場競爭條件下，DRAM(動態隨機存取記憶體)廠商間的競爭類型，並藉由歷史性財務績效指標的比較，印證台灣DRAM廠商處在競爭賽局中的不利地位，最後，再以既有的限制條件推演未來台灣DRAM製造廠商可以採取的生存策略。 從市場結構分析，我們了解全球DRAM產業為寡佔市場，各廠商間製造的(PC) DRAM產品並無顯著差異性，廠商在技術領先具有財務誘因的前提下，傾向採取積極(攻勢)策略，因而形成了一個以價格競爭為本質的不合作賽局。此一賽局結構產生類似軍備競賽的「囚犯困境」，使得廠商在價格�成本競爭的比拚延伸至總體資源的運用與效率，以求在半導體製造線徑及良率上領先競爭者。而台灣廠商在缺乏政府政策及財團資源支持下，終因總體資源不足成為邊際廠商，故研究發現台灣廠商雖有優良的資產運用效率，仍然避免不了被淘汰的命運。最後，本研究總結從前一波不景氣循環倖存之台灣廠商有兩種生存策略；如果仍繼續留在商品型DRAM市場則只能依附國際大廠生存，而較適宜的策略則為進入利基型DRAM市場，在國際大廠照顧不到的市場區隔發展自有技術與品牌，尋求生存空間。

This research applies the SCP (structure-conduct-performance) paradigm with concepts of game theory and analytical approaches of the system dynamics. First, we establish a non-cooperative, prisoner dilemma-like game of arm race based on the scenario occurred in the DRAM market. The rationale of non-cooperation is mainly due to the presence of financial incentives for technology advancement undertaken by DRAM players, which then drives these players to invest all available resources to achieve technology lead, in terms of manufacturing process line width and production yield. Given such dominant strategy for all DRAM makers, the marginal players like Taiwanese firms will be forced out eventually due to limited capacity of resources. We further backup such conceptual speculation with comparison of key financial performance measures among Taiwan DRAM makers and the representative international player during the past 20 years. Based on our findings, we suggest two feasible competitive strategies for Taiwanese DRAM makers that survived from the last industry downturn: 1) to form strategic alliance with international leading firm and stay in the game of arm race, or preferably, 2) to target a niche segment of the DRAM market that is lack of incentives for the major players.