旅館訂房取消選擇權價值之決定因子

Abstract

旅館經理人在制定房間價格時，會搭配不同的取消訂房方案而有不同的定價，過去文獻多是探討個別方案的價格如何訂定，而本文主要關注在兩種不同取消方案價格之間的價差，兩方案分別為：可以免費取消及不可免費取消。我們有興趣的是在市場需求的變動下，此價差會如何變化；以及不同經理人主動管理價格的程度，是否對於價差會有不同的調整；另一方面，此價差其實可以視為給予消費者之選擇權，因此本文亦探討旅館經理人除了以經濟及行銷的角度定價外，是否將金融市場選擇權定價之想法代入其中。 本文選擇的樣本期間為2019年12月至2020年3月，共 293 個不同的房型，期間橫跨了新冠肺炎爆發。我們建立縱橫資料 (Panel Data)，並以固定效果迴歸模型 (fixed effects regression model) 進行分析，探討經理人主動管理程度，對於不同取消政策之定價價差的影響；另一方面，從疫情前隨機抽取一日資料，建立自行衡量時間價值的方式，以母體平均數 t檢定進行分析，探討旅館經理人是否將金融市場選擇權定價想法，納入價差定價之中。 根據本文的結果發現，不同經理人之主動管理程度，在疫情前後確實影響對於不同取消政策價差之制定；而另一方面，也發現旅館經理人並未將選擇權之想法納入定價考慮中。本文希望能夠以不同於以往之觀點，探討不同取消政策間價差之關係，使我們對此價差有更深入的了解。

When pricing hotel rooms, hotel managers may match different cancellation policies and have different pricing. In the past, the literature mostly discussed how to price each policy. This paper focuses on the price difference between two different cancellation plans: Free-Cancellation and Non-Refundable. We are interested in how the price difference will response when market demand shifts, and whether managers that have the different degrees of managing the price actively will adjust the price in different ways. On the other hand, the price difference can be regarded an option to consumers, so this paper also explores whether the hotel managers refer the idea of option pricing in financial markets into the pricing of price difference. The sample period selected in this article is from December 2019 to March 2020, with a total of 293 different room types. During the period, COVID-19 was spanned. We used panel data and fixed effects regression model to analyzed and discussed the relationship between the manager's active management degree and the price difference. Also, we randomly sampled daily data before COVID-19, establish a measure of time value, and used one-sample t-test to analyzed whether hotel managers include the idea of option pricing in financial markets into the pricing of price difference. According to the results of this paper, we found that the degree of active management of different managers did affect the formulation of price differences. Besides, we also found that hotel managers have not included the idea of option pricing in considerations. This paper hopes to explore the relationship between the price differences between different cancellation policies, so that we can have a deeper understanding of it.