避險之後： 新加坡與菲律賓避險戰略成效之比較（2002-2013）

Abstract

「避險」（hedging）是當前研究東南亞與中國關係的新焦點，它體現了現實主義、自由制度主義與建構主義的邏輯。本文試圖探討新加坡與菲律賓避險戰略的特徵與成效，新、菲兩國屬於美國主導的軍事安全陣營，也是美國在東南亞最親密的戰略夥伴，故本文以此兩國作為最不可能案例，探討新、菲是否也能成功對中國汲取利益，兩面討好。 本文首先釐清避險與其他概念的區別，接著建立評估避險成效的四項指標，並且區分議題領域，分別探討菲美、菲中、新美、以及新中四組關係，實證檢驗菲律賓與新加坡的避險成效。本研究發現：首先，基於安全偏好相容度（congruence of security preference）的差異，新、菲與美國戰略關係較為緊密；對中國則較為防備戒慎。其次，雖然新、菲都屬於美國軍事陣營，但並不影響他們與中國的密切交往，新、菲一方面與美國不斷強化安全防衛聯繫，一方面同時與中國經濟靠攏，安全與制度合作也蓬勃發展，故通過最不可能案例的檢驗，證實避險觀點的看法。最後，由於單元層次對避險成效發揮重要作用，因此新加坡的避險戰略整體較菲律賓成功。

Among current discussions in Southeast Asia-China relations, the most significant one is “hedging”. This study aimed to examine the features and effectiveness of hedging strategy between Singapore and the Philippines. This study established four main indicators to test if hedging strategy successfully achieved its goals. Singapore and the Philippines are selected as the two “least likely” cases because they both are the closest strategic partners of the United States. This thesis has three findings. Firstly, due to the congruence of security preference, Singapore and the Philippines are close to the U.S., whereas being vigilant toward China. Secondly, while enhancing security ties with the U.S., Singapore and the Philippines both acquired huge economic benefits from China and improved political/security relations with China. Lastly, unit level factors influenced the effectiveness of hedging strategy. Therefore, Singapore’s hedging was more successful than the Philippines’ as a whole.