權力平衡與中美關係(2000-2012)：柔性制衡概念的驗證

Abstract

權力平衡理論的解釋力在冷戰後以美國為首的國際單極體系中備受質疑。在2003年的伊拉克戰爭後，學界從次級列強試圖藉由非軍事手段阻止布希政府具侵略性的單邊主義的行為中提出柔性制衡的概念，此概念受到學界熱烈回應並被認為或許可以彌補理論的不足之處。然而柔性制衡為一新的概念，缺乏明確的概念意義與具系統性的分析，以及實際的案例驗證，使得柔性制衡在國際關係中的適用性仍備受質疑。本文透過重新檢視文獻中的權力平衡理論、制衡與柔性制衡的概念建立出柔性制衡的定義與指標，並利用案例研究驗證柔性制衡是否確實在國際政治中作為一國的外交策略，以及採取柔性制衡手段所達到的目標與效果。在案例研究上，筆者將焦點放在2000年到2012年的中美關係上，探討中國在安全-上海合作組織、政治-聯合國人權建制、經貿-ASEAN+N和金融-IMF四個領域與案例中對美國的柔性制衡關係，解釋中國如何藉由與他國的雙邊關係與多邊外交平台共同柔性制衡美國又不會引起立即性的報復。最後，本研究不僅重新定義了柔性制衡與權力平衡理論和制衡概念的差異性與目的，並從中美關係中驗證柔性制衡的適用性，得出柔性制衡概念實為中國對抗美國權力優勢的重要外交策略，並達到削弱美國權力增長，獲得有利於中國的權力分配結果。

The explanation of Balance of Power theory is being questioned in the post-Cold War era, especially after the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003. Literature of IR scholarship found that secondary powers attempting to frustrate the aggressive unilateral behavior of George W. Bush administration mainly adopted non-military means, which promped the concept of “soft-balancing”. The concept of “soft- balancing” has caused intense debates as it revises the inadequacies of the previous theories on “balance of power”. However, due to the lack of clear definition, systematic analysis as well as case examination, “soft-balancing” as a new concept and its applicability remains doubtful. This study re-examines the literature on the Balance of Power theory, the concept of balancing and soft-balancing in order to establish the definition and tangible indicators for “soft-balancing”. Furthermore, the author verifies the objectives and results of China’s “balancing” behavior towards the United States as a case study to answer question of whether the “soft-balancing” is indeed a workable, foreign strategy. The case study focuses on the Sino-American relations in the period from 2000 to 2012 and explores four separate fields: (1) Security field: Shanghai Cooperation Organization; (2) Political field: the UN Human Rights regime; (3) International trade field: the “ASEAN + N” trade cooperation; (4) International finance field: the IMF. All four case studies concentrate on the China’s employment of “soft-balancing” strategies in bilateral relations and multilateral diplomacy with other countries to balance the United States without causing immediate reaction from Washington. In conclusion, this study clarifies the difference and purposes between “soft-balancing,” “balancing” and “balance of power”. It further verifies the applicability of “soft-balancing” within the case of Sino-American relations. The concept of soft-balancing is indeed an important foreign policy strategy for China to weaken the U.S. dominance in various fields and pursue a revised, favorable power distribution.