台灣糧食安全與貿易自由化關係之研究－全球糧食安全指標（GFSI）之應用

Abstract

面對國際經貿自由化趨勢，台灣對於農業保護的議題也浮出水面。政府積極與世界各國洽簽區域貿易協定，期能降低國與國之間的貿易障礙，提升貿易便捷。與此同時，卻出現許多對於積極簽訂自由貿易協定的反對聲浪，認為與他國簽訂自由貿易協定將降低我國農產品進出口限制，進一步導致台灣過度依賴他國農產品，除了衝擊我國小農以外，也會造成台灣糧食自給率下滑以及國內糧食安全疑慮。隨著經貿自由化，台灣糧食自給率確實呈現下滑趨勢，然而對於國內糧食安全究竟是否有衝擊？糧食自給率確實為衡量一國糧食安全的考量指標，然而單以糧食自給率作為整體國家糧食安全與否的評斷標準已經不是現在國際趨勢。新加坡的農業生產量極低，國內需求仰賴國外進口，導致國內糧食自給率趨近於零。然而新加坡是否受到糧食安全的威脅？答案是否定的。 本研究根據經濟學人信息社（Economist Intelligence Unit，EIU）於2014年發表之全球糧食安全指標（Global Food Security Index，GFSI）計算台灣糧食安全於全球的排名。此外，由於全球糧食安全指標的權重決定方式並未透明化，因此本研究進一步採用多層級資料包絡分析法（hierarchical data envelopment analysis，hierarchical DEA）驗證EIU全球糧食安全指標的可信度。 研究結果顯示：台灣於2014年GFSI總體排名於110個國家中位於第24名，為全球前20%，總分為74.4分；負擔能力指標的分數為81分，全球排名第26名；供應能力指標分數為68.6，全球排名為第25名；品質與安全指標分數為76.3，全球排名第27名。雖然台灣的糧食安全分數表現優異，但以亞洲排名第一的新加坡為目標，台灣需加強國內總體經濟項目如國民生產毛額、糧食使用效率（糧食損失）等項目。而全球糧食安全指標的可信度也藉由多層級資料包絡分析法獲得了認可，兩種方式算出之糧食安全分數相關性極高；採用Wilcoxon無母數分析，結果顯示無法拒絕需無假設，亦即兩種方式計算之分數並無顯著差異。 在了解相較於新加坡台灣需改善的面向以及驗證了全球糧食安全指標的可信度後，本研究以EIU糧食安全指標計算出台灣過去20年的糧食安全分數，進一步探討國家糧食安全與糧食自給率、農業貿易自由化趨勢。隨著台灣農業經貿自由化，農產品關稅降低、農業貿易逆差逐年上升，確實造成台灣糧食自給率下降，然而整體糧食安全分數是呈現穩地的上升趨勢。 因此本研究之結論為以下：一為糧食自給率並不能完全表示一國糧食安全，因為台灣糧食自給率不斷下降的同時，糧食安全分數卻是持續的上升。二為農業貿易自由化也不會使國家糧食安全下降。

The effect of trade liberalization (e.g., WTO, FTA, or TPP) on food security has been an important issue in policy debates. An acceptable definition and reasonable measurement of food security is indispensable for such impact assessment. In Taiwan, Korea and Japan where agriculture is traditionally highly protected, the concept of food security is almost equivalent to that of “food self-sufficiency rate”. As a result, trade liberalization with increasing agricultural imports will surely incur negative impacts on domestic agriculture and food security. To deepen the dialogue on food security, we utilized the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) which was created by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) of the Economist in 2012. In contrast to “food self-sufficiency rate”, the GFSI assesses food security across three internationally designated dimensions: affordability, availability and utilization (or quality and safety). As a dynamic quantitative and qualitative benchmarking model, the GFSI was constructed from 28 unique indicators measuring drivers of food security across 109 countries, but without Taiwan. In this study, we have three specific aims to be fulfilled. The first is to calculate the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) for Taiwan and investigate the performance raking of Taiwan in the world. The second is to use the hierarchical data envelopment analysis (DEA) to recalculate the ranking of GFSI, trying to test and verify the weightings assigned are convincible or not. Importantly, the last purpose of this study is to build the time-series data of Taiwan’s GFSI and explore the relationship between Taiwan’s trade liberalization since her WTO accession in 2002 and food security status. The results of this study indicate that the GFSI of Taiwan (74.4 points) took the 24rd place (the top 20%) in the overall ranking among 110 countries in 2014. Each of the three categories ranked 26th, 25th and 27th with 80 points, 68.6 points, and 76.3 points, respectively. Furthermore, the verification results of GFSI by the hierarchical DEA are similar to the original. Using the hierarchical DEA, Taiwan took the 26th place in the overall ranking among 110 countries in 2014 in the first scenario and took the 23rd place in the second scenario instead. The United States still took the first place in the both scenarios, and Singapore which took the fifth place originally became the sixth and second one in the first scenario and second scenario respectively. Adding the theoretical models, we can greatly increase the believability of the GFSI. Although it seems that the food security performance of Taiwan is good according to the GFSI, there are still many aspects that can be improved when we compare with the performance of Singapore, such as GDP per capita and the efficiency of distribution. In this study, the annual GFSIs of Taiwan over the past 15 years were also computed to investigate the association between food security, food self-sufficiency rate, and trade liberalization. Within the past 15 years, there were significantly sharp declines in 2002 and 2008. We inferred that the main reason for the sharp declines in 2002 is the import tariff decrease resulting from Taiwan’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). And for 2008, an economic recession generated by the Global Financial Crisis should be responsible for the significant decline of Taiwan’s GFSI. In general, we found that there has been a steady growth trend of Taiwan’s GFSI since 2002 although food self-sufficiency rate has been declining. In conclusions, judging from the more comprehensive measurement of food security definition, trade liberalization improves the food security status of Taiwan.