供應鏈廠商被併購風險與企業信用風險

Abstract

信用風險是近年來財務熱門的研究主題之一，過去文獻較著重於公司本身財務變數或總體經濟變數對於企業信用風險的影響。本研究以產業供應鏈的角度切入，進一步探討供應鏈廠商經營權轉移風險對於企業自身信用風險的影響。本研究蒐集了2001年至2011年美國公司債年資料，針對公司債信用利差進行橫斷面追蹤資料迴歸分析。實證結果發現，在控制公司特徵變數以及債券特徵變數並進行穩健性檢查後，上游廠商被併購機率與企業自身信用風險成正向關係。而下游廠商被併購機率與企業自身信用風險之正向關係在控制公司特徵變數以及債券特徵變數之下並不如上游廠商般穩健。

This study investigates the effects of suppliers’/ customers’ takeover probability on firm’s bond yield spreads by employing the data of American corporate bond from 2001 to 2011. The empirical results show that the suppliers’ takeover probability effects significantly explain a firm’s bond yield spreads. In addition, this result is robust when controlling for other well-known firm specific variables. However, the result of customer side is not always significant although the relationships between firm’s bond yield spread and customers’ takeover probability are positive both in empirical analysis or robustness check.