臺灣人認同與選民的投票抉擇：2000至2012年總統選舉的實證分析

Abstract

本文以2000年-2012年總統選舉的四波匯總數據，來分析不同年齡、時期、世代選民的「臺灣人認同」與其「投票抉擇」關聯的情況。為了瞭解，「年齡－時期－世代」效應下，選民的「臺灣人認同」與「票投民進黨」之間，形成兩者非純然的線性增減關聯的原因，我們從選民受到「中華民國臺灣化的國家意識型態」影響的觀點切入，將全體選民化分成為「中華民國化國家意識型態」選民，以及「臺灣化國家意識型態」選民此兩類型群體，進行其投票行為分析，結果發現這兩類型群體選民的「臺灣人認同」在時期的變遷中，都會變成了無法解釋投票抉擇的情況。本研究結論指出：臺灣選民的投票行為中，「臺灣人認同」會因為「中華民國臺灣化國家意識型態」不同理解的影響，而造成「臺灣人認同」無法再對於投票抉擇產生影響效果，由此之故，選民的「臺灣人認同」乃無法與「票投民進黨」產生所謂「水漲船高」的穩定性關聯。

This study uses 4 times' tabulate data of presidential election during 2000-2012 to analyze the relation between electorates' 'Taiwanese identity' and 'voting selection' in different age, time, and century. In order to know the reason why there is not only increase or decrease linearity relation formed between electorates' 'Taiwanese identity' and 'voting for democratic progressive party ' under the effect of 'age-time-century', we start from the viewpoint that the electorates are affected by the “Chinese or Taiwanese national ideology', divide all electorates into two groups: the electorates of 'Chinese national ideology' and the electorates of 'Taiwanese national ideology', analyze their voting performance, and then find out that under the time change, these two types of electorates' 'Taiwanese identity' can't explain the situation of voting selection. The conclusion of this study is: In Taiwanese electorates' voting performance, because influenced by different understanding of 'Chinese or Taiwanese national ideology' ,the 'Taiwanese identity' can't affect the voting selection anymore, because of this, electorates' 'Taiwanese identity' can't forms stable relation of 'corresponding rise” with 'voting for DPP'.