教育不平等、教育回報、教育組成效果之變化對中國代間社會階級流動的影響

Abstract

本研究檢驗了教育不平等，教育回報和教育組成的變化分別如何形塑相當代中國代間社會階級流動的樣貌。在CASMIN (Comparative Analysis of Social Mobility in Industrial Nations)引發的一系列比較分層研究熱潮之後，關注社會分層的學者聚焦於制度安排如何影響分層的結果。教育作為社會脈絡重要的組成要素，也是社會流動的重要機制。在社會轉型的過程中，教育也在各個方面發生了變化。當代中國正在處在一個快速的，壓縮的工業化和市場化進程之中，隨之而來的教育各個方面的變化可能產生有利於社會流動的作用，也可能抑制了社會流動，為了理解當代中國社會中不同世代代間社會階級流動之差異的產生，區分教育各個方面的變化所產生的促進或抑制社會流動的作用是十分必要的。研究使用的數據來自中國綜合社會調查（CGSS）。通過一個「反事實」的取徑，本研究模擬了在不同因素作用下，社會流動世代變動的軌跡。通過比較模擬的結果和真實的流動水平，研究發現代間父子職業階級相依程度隨世代先上升後下降。教育不平等和教育回報都在年輕的世代中上升，並且抑制了相對流動水平。一些針對西方國家進行的研究發現，父子職業階級相依性在接受過高等教育的群體中較低，伴隨著高教擴張，整體的社會流動性提高。但這一聚焦於教育組成結構變化的因素並沒有在中國社會產生類似的作用，相反的，對於所有世代群體而言，它都抑制了社會流動。與教育無關的父子階級的淨相關（partial association）的變化很大程度上解釋了為什麼在與教育有關的因素的變化大多抑制社會流動的情況下，相對流動水平仍然能夠在年輕的世代中下降並維持在一個相對低的水平上。進一步的分析發現，年輕世代中社會的開放程度之所以增加，是由於農業部門和非農業部門之間的流動藩籬不斷弱化以及繼承效應不斷弱化造成的。

This paper examines how changes in educational inequality, educational return and compositional effect have shaped the dynamics of intergenerational social fluidity in contemporary China. The core concern of post-CASMIN (Comparative Analysis of Social Mobility in Industrial Nations) comparative stratification research is how the institutional arrangement affects stratification outcomes. A crucial component describing the social context and one of the primary mechanisms of mobility, education changes in many aspects during social transition. Distinguishing changes with equalizing effects from those with disequalizing effects is integral to further understanding the variations in the openness of society across cohorts in China, which is experiencing condensed trajectories of industrialization and marketization. Analyzing data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and adopting a “counterfactual” approach, this study simulates counterfactual mobility trends shaped by specific forces and finds that intergenerational occupational class persistence increases in older cohorts and decreases in younger cohorts. Educational inequality and educational return both rise among younger cohorts, demonstrating a disequalizing effect on social fluidity. Unlike results found in Western countries, differential origin-destination associations among different education groups and changes in education composition across cohorts do not facilitate openness; on the contrary, changes in this factor suppress intergenerational class mobility in all cohorts in China. Changes in the partial association between origins and destinations over cohorts mainly explain why social fluidity decreases and remains at a relatively low level among younger cohorts. Further analysis indicates that increasing openness in younger cohorts is driven by a lowered barrier between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and a declining inheritance effect.