九二一地震對勞動市場與新生兒出生健康的影響

Abstract

這篇論文以九二一地震為題，分別探討劇烈的地震對勞動市場與新生首先我們估計台中縣、南投縣在經歷1999年的九二一大地震後，到了2000、2001年間，勞動市場和震前相比是否仍受影響，或已復原。我們使用1996-1998年和2000-2001年的人力運用調查資料，以中投地區勞工做為實驗組，彰化雲林地區勞工為對照組，透過differences-in-differences框架估計失業機率和一週工時、時薪的變化，再各別對數個受地震影響較大的產業：一級產業、製造業、娛樂和旅館業估計其時薪。結果發現失業機率和一週工時不受地震影響，整體的時薪在災後下跌。三項產業的時薪都在2000年下跌，到了2001年，地震的效果已不顯著。 第二部分我們估計經歷九二一地震的母親因為驚嚇，體內賀爾蒙等情況改變，使得胎兒出生健康蒙受傷害的程度。我們使用1994-2000年的內政部出生登記檔案和differences-in-differences框架，比較在不同震度；母親於孕後、三個孕期、孕前經歷地震的新生兒，結果發現母親於懷孕越早期遭遇地震，新生兒狀況越差，反映在低出生體重的機率、懷孕週數和早產機率。

Here we focus on the negative impact of 921 earthquake in Taiwan. This dissertation is composed of 2 topics: one analyzes labor market and the other focuses on birth outcomes. The magnitude 7.3 earthquake in September 1999 struck central Taiwan, injured more than two thousand people, and crippled GDP production. We wonder whether the labor market in Nantou and Taichung county have recovered in 2000-2111. In chapter 1, we use data collected in Manpower Utilization Survey data to estimate the changes of unemployment rate, working hour per week, and wage before and after the earthquake. Our estimates are based on differences-in-differences method, setting the labor data in Zhanghua and Yunlin county as our control group. Besides, we separately estimate the adverse effect on wages among workers in four major industries: agriculture, manufacture, entertainments and hotels. Our results suggests that wages decreased significantly in 2000-2001 for workers in Nantou and Taichung as a whole, but in 2001, the earthquake effect on wages became insignificant for workers in all four industries. In the second topic, we explore the birth outcomes of pregnant women who underwent the earthquake in Taiwan. More and more literatures suggest that maternal stress during pregnancy has adverse effect on birth outcomes. However, sometimes the events that causes stress are endogenous, which disturb our estimation. Natural disasters are unpredictable, making them a good “natural experiment” to study the role of stress on the outcomes of neonatal health. In this chapter we identify the 921 earthquake as a source of stress and use differences-in-differences strategy to analyze 1994-2000 census birth certificate data. Our results suggest that stress is more harmful to fetuses under 28 weeks and embryos formed after 921 earthquake and before June 2000, which are carried by shocked mothers who underwent the earthquake. These birth outcomes show higher percentage of low birth weight, shorter gestation age, and premature labor.