臺灣中央政府總預算審議之影響因素：民國70年至102年度

Abstract

近年來，每年因政府預算赤字所導致的公共債務持續增加，立法院長期延遲完成預算審查以及立法委員在預算審議過程中發生的暴力事件等負面新聞的報導，使得臺灣中央政府總預算案的審議成為頗受社會關注的熱門議題。然而與人們的關心程度相比，現有文獻中無論是質化分析還是量化研究，對於此課題的探討都略顯不足。

因此，本文將以臺灣中央政府總預算審議之影響因素作為研究對象，採用民國70年至102年共33年間的歲出機關別預算資料，探索影響臺灣中央政府各部會總歲出與經資門預算審議結果的因素以及影響的具體表現為何。研究方法上，主要採用文獻分析與定量分析的方法，其中定量分析部分將包括描述性統計與迴歸分析兩部分。描述性統計部分，主要對各年度以及各部會歷年來總歲出、經常支出與資本支出預算規模的演變以及預算刪減情況進行分析與比較。迴歸分析部分，將根據文獻回顧內容建立模型架構，並據此建立相應的假設予以驗證。根據各部會預算資料的特點，本研究將採用Stata軟體中的xtscc語法建立迴歸模型，選取的自變項包括政治、經濟、財政與法律等因素，以嘗試對中央政府總預算審議結果的影響因素進行探討。 透過實證研究本文發現，預算規模方面，年度總歲出與經常支出總額均呈現波動上升的增長趨勢，近年來經常支出與資本支出預算規模的差距逐漸增大。預算審議結果方面，資本支出預算的平均刪減幅度與變動均大於經常支出，而各部會預算之刪減可能會受到部會經資門預算的比例分布以及社會對部會的關注度的影響。在迴歸分析部分，分立政府、立法院非執政黨所占席次之比例與年度因素均無顯著影響，總統與立法委員之選舉對各部會總歲出與經資門預算刪減率的影響皆具有統計上的解釋力，經濟成長率對各部會總歲出與經常支出預算審議結果有顯著影響，而解嚴僅對各部會資本支出預算刪減率影響顯著，公共債務法與當年度預算賸餘比例只對各部會經常支出預算刪減率影響顯著，且除資本支出預算外，各部會總歲出與經常支出預算審議過程中均存在漸進主義之現象。

In recent years, the public debts have increased continually as a result of the annual budget deficits, and the Legislative Yuan often finishes budget approval with delay. Besides, incidents of violence that happened in the process of budget approval are frequently reported. For the foregoing reasons, the budget approval of the central government in Taiwan has attracted great attention of society. However, contrary to the public’s concern, the existing studies on that topic are insufficient both qualitatively and quantitatively. Therefore, this paper focuses on the influencing factors of the budget approval of the central government in Taiwan with the data by agencies from FY 1981 to 2013 to find out what affect the approval of the government agencies’ total, current and capital expenditures and their specific influences. Moreover, the methods of literature review and quantitative analysis are adopted with the part of quantitative analysis mainly including descriptive statistics and regression analysis. In the section of descriptive statistics, the development and cut ratios of the total, current and capital expenditures among 34 ministries during 33 years are analyzed and compared, while in the section of regression analysis, based on the literature review an empirical model is built, and the corresponding hypotheses are established. Furthermore, in line with the data’s properties, the Stata syntax of xtscc is employed in the regression to explore the influences of the political, economic, fiscal and legal factors on the approval of the central government’s general budget. It is found that the annual total and current expenditures demonstrate a fluctuant growing trend, and the differences between the current and capital expenditures gradually increase. In addition, the average cut ratio and variance of the capital budget both exceed those of the current budget. Beyond that, the cut ratio of the government agencies’ total budget depends on their capital budget’s share and the degree of social concern. The regression result shows that the divided government, the rate of non-ruling parties in the Legislative Yuan and the time factor all have no significant influences, but both of presidential and legislative elections’ influences reach the significant level. Additionally, the influence of the economic growth rate on government agencies’ total and current expenditures’ approval, and that of the lifting of martial law on capital expenditures’ cut ratios also have statistical significance. Nonetheless, the Public Debt Act and the budget surplus rate only significantly influence the approval of the current budget, and except the capital budget, incrementalism exists both in the approval of total and current expenditures.