以訊號理論探討IFRS 16對設備租賃決策之潛在影響

Abstract

IABS在2016年發布了一套新租賃準則IFRS 16，取代了現有的IAS 17。此項準則要求將租賃活動認列為融資租賃，只有少數情形可以豁免，而IABS亦宣稱這項租賃準則的改革可以增進資訊的公開性與可比較性，進而對社會產生正面影響。然而凡事皆有正反兩面，立意良善的制度仍有可能在某些場域中帶來不利的影響。在本篇論文中，我們認為若企業的存續機率並非投資人能精準觀測到的，則舊制度中允許企業自行選擇認列方式，可以讓存續機率較高的企業透過選擇融資租賃對投資人傳遞正面訊號，因為存續機率較低之公司選擇融資租賃可獲得的稅盾效果較低。換言之，新制度禁止此種訊號傳遞，亦可能帶來不利影響，而這在存續機率難以衡量之公司，例如新創公司，更顯重要。為了確認此論點是否成立，我們建立了一個經濟模型，包含一間需要募資的公司與一群投資人，其中公司之存續機率為其隱藏資訊。我們衡量公司在改革前後在財報表達的選擇，並根據公司在各種情形下的價值，探究分離均衡以及混合均衡是否存在。我們發現在資訊不對稱下，無論公司的存續機率為何，此項準則之改革確實可能會對公司之現有股東不利，且當公司存續機率之不易衡量程度居中時，此問題最為嚴重。

In 2016, IASB issued a new lease standard, IFRS 16, which replaced the existing standard, IAS 17. The new standard requires the leases to be recognized as finance leases except for some minor cases. IASB claimed that the reformation can increase the information transparency and comparability among firms, and thus do goods to economics. However, everything has its pros and cons. A well-intentioned standard may bring a negative impact on some aspects. In this paper, we think that if the firm’s survival probability cannot be publicly observed, the old standard allows firms with higher survival probabilities to send positive signals to the investors by recognizing their leases as finance leases. This is because that the firms with lower survival probabilities gain less from the tax-shield effect when recognizing as finance leases. In other words, the new standard prevents firms from sending such signals, bringing negative impacts. To confirm this argument, we construct an economic model, including investors and a firm who needs to raise fund. The firm’s survival probability is private. We determine the firm’s optimal decision before and after the reformation. We investigate the existence of separating and pooling equilibriums by measuring the firm’s value under various situations. We find that under incomplete information, the reformation can do harm to the shareholders of the firm no matter what the firm’s survival probability is. This situation becomes even serious when the difficulty of measuring the survival probability is intermediate.