券商報告目標價及盈餘預測與外資持股及企業治理型態

Abstract

本研究旨在研究國內券商分析師報告之目標價與盈餘預測的誤差是否受不同市場因素所影響。實證結果發現外資持股比例與企業治理型態對於券商分析師報告進行目標價及盈餘預測確實會產生影響；意即券商分析師的評價預測與該股票外資持股比例高低、企業治理型態的不同所影響。實證結果顯示，目標價預測誤差的部分，外資持股比例除了在電子業的影響不顯著外，在其他產業皆呈現顯著影響；企業治理型態則在所有產業之中皆呈現顯著影響。盈餘預測誤差的部分，外資持股比例在電子、金融產業的影響不顯著，非金電則有顯著影響；企業治理型態則同樣在所有產業皆有顯著影響。本研究認為關於變數對預測誤差的顯著程度與影響的方向取決於不同產業間具有資訊透明程度的差異，以及市場對產業關注程度差別，而這些資訊內涵的差別則會在分析師進行預測時，影響其所作的決策。

This paper is focus on domestic security market, analyzing whether FINI holdings and ownership type of a company would affect the target price and earnings forecast of brokers. According to our result, these two factors indeed affect the forecast precision. Effect of FINI holdings are significant in price forecast, except for electric industry. Effect of ownership type are all significant in price forecast. In earnings forecast, effect of FINI holdings is only significant in traditional industry and ownership are still significant in all industry. The different effect between each industry shows in our research is mainly due to different information transparency and attention in these companies. And analyst would generate an expectation base on different information taking from the market, which might affect their decision making.