韓半島國家的避險策略及其成效：九世紀至十九世紀歷史案例的比較分析

Abstract

所謂的「避險策略」，在國際關係領域上，是指國家面臨周邊權力變化時，為了將經濟、政治、安全上的利益極大化，或者為了將國家利益的損失最小化，所採取的具有彈性的外交策略。本研究認為避險策略雖在基本上屬於現實主義的理論框架，但在其運用過程當中會受到物質與非物質方面的影響。本文要透過對韓半島國家的歷史驗證，分析避險策略在國際政治上的運用模式以及物質與非物質因素對此的影響。過去，韓半島國家面臨新興國家崛起時，如果其侵略意圖模糊且能力有限，即會採取非扈從非制衡的避險策略。然而，在其運用避險策略的過程當中，必須平衡地考慮物質與非物質因素，否則未能達到政策目標，也會面臨政策失敗。本研究要以高麗與遼，朝鮮與後金，朝鮮開港等三個時期為案例，論證了上述避險策略的進行過程以及其背後的物質與非物質因素的作用。

In the field of International Relations, hedging strategy means that a state, when it faces a sudden emergence of rising power, chooses a flexible diplomatic strategy in order to maximize its interest or to minimize its loss. The article argues that hedging strategy can be influenced by both of material and non-material elements, although it is in the realm of Realism. According to Realism, when a state faces emergence of rising power, it will choose either bandwagoning or balancing. However, in reality, as we have witnessed, states actually have wider spectrum of choices, especially when the rising power's capability and intention of revisionism(or invasion) is not clear. Therefore, this research aims at analyzing the process of hedging strategy and proving how material and non-material elements influence its result. The history of Korea, Goryeo-Liao, Chosun-Later Jin and Chosun's open-harbor period, will be analyzed as three case studies. Confucianism will be studied as non-material elements. When ancient dynasties of Korea adopted hedging strategy, the motivation is based on material power. However, during the process of implementing the strategy, non-material element also influenced its result, sometimes even could lead the policy to failure. Therefore, the article is designed to illustrate how hedging strategy is adopted against emerging power and to prove the influence of material and non-material elements during the process of it.