2014年新竹市長選舉研究：林智堅勝選的政治社會基礎

Abstract

本論文以新竹市長林智堅競選總部以「MSRC精湛民意調查顧問股份有限公司」所進行的6次民調結果，本論文先對民調結果進行簡單的統計分析，描述支持林智堅的選民分配。其次，就人口學變數與林智堅的支持度進行卡方（χ2）檢定，考驗這些變數的內部族群對林智堅的支持是否具有顯著地差異。再運用「二元勝算對數迴歸分析」建立解釋模型，以瞭解是哪些人口學變數及政治社會心理變數，顯著地影響受訪者對林智堅的支持，從而描繪出林智堅勝選的政治社會基礎。在太陽花學運後，總的來看，林智堅是以良好的政黨基礎做為勝選的根基，再輔以相當關鍵的個人特質因素，使其得以獲得勝選，分析結果看來，新竹市長林智堅的勝選並非贏得僥倖。

The thesis is according to the six polls campaign headquarters in Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-Chien by the Master Survey & Research Co. Ltd (MSRC).The first, the thesiscarried out simple statistical analysisresults of the poll, describe Lin Chih-Chien voters support distribution. Secondly, the support of demographic variables and Lin Chih-Chien of the Chi-Square (χ2) test, a test of the internal variables of these groups support for Lin Chih-Chien to whether a significant difference. Then use “the binary logit regression analysis “to established interpretation model can understand what demographic variables and political society psychographic, significantly affects the respondents support Lin Chih-Chien, which describe thepolitical social basis ofLin Chih-Chien to win the election. After the sunflower student movement, overall, Lin Chih-Chien has a good basis for the political parties as a success of the foundation, supplemented by personal traits are critical factors that enable it to obtain the success, the results seem, Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-Chien's victory was not a luck win