東協經濟整合的挑戰與動力：從AFTA到AEC

Abstract

2015年11月21日第27屆東協峰會正式宣布包含AEC在內的東協經共同體構想，於2015年12月31日完成。回顧過去東協經濟整合發展歷程，發現即便面臨成員國內部分歧、合作進度遲滯等挑戰，東協卻仍堅持在經濟整合道路上。爰此，本研究想要探討東協在面臨多重挑戰情況下，其持續經濟整合的動力為何。本文以AFTA之發展經驗為參考，了解面對亞洲金融危機此一空前的外部挑戰，為何東協不但未放棄經濟整合，反而加速AFTA完成的時程並促成AEC？同時，探討過去AFTA的發展經驗同時，本研究更進一步研析AFTA之發展脈絡是否可適用於AEC？ 本研究利用文獻分析法和歷史分析法，以1992年AFTA成立為基礎，延伸至AEC的建立與完成，觀察東協從AFTA遭遇之挑戰與經驗，是否可作為AEC的參考，並以此歸納出AEC持續的動力。以現有事實為基礎，本研究假定東協國家必須推動東協區域經濟整合增進區域的實力，以增加談判籌碼，但是彼此之間卻因國內產業等經濟發展因素無法真正做到整合。 根據研究發現顯示，自1992年AFTA合作伊始至今，東協正式推動經濟整合過程中，每個階段都有學者對東協模式下的共識決策或不干涉內政等原則提出質疑，還有成員國間的發展差異、內部分歧、成員國內部政治動盪或人權與環境等課題，讓AFTA與AEC兩個經濟整合的努力，隨時要面對其內部紛爭帶來之挑戰，進度時常落後、前行腳步遲緩。而東協經濟整合在內部困難不斷衍生或懸而未決的情況下，還能持續進行，即有賴外部壓力對其產生推動作用。隨著中國經濟實力增強以及美國推出「重返亞洲」政策，美國與中國在東亞區域的權力競逐白熱化，對東協於東亞區域合作之領導權產生莫大壓力。因此，經濟層面東協應強化自身團結，確保AEC順利完成，並展開後續更深化的經貿合作。 總體而言，無論是AFTA或AEC之經濟合作，東協經濟整合在面對內部挑戰與外部壓力時，內部挑戰大致上為拖沓整合腳步的挑戰，外部壓力雖然一方面會對其產生挑戰，但實際上更促進東協內部更團結，可說是促進東協經濟整合的動力。

November 21, 2015, the 27th ASEAN Summit had formally announced that the ASEAN Community which includes the ASEAN Economic Community would be accomplished on December 31, 2015. Look back to the heuristic procedure of ASEAN economic integration, we could figure out that even though they confronted lots of internal challenges, like the difference between member states and delayed of cooperation process, ASEAN still insists on economic integration. Therefore, this essay wants to investigate the motivation of economic integration of ASEAN when they face with those multiple challenges. This essay is based on the development experience of AFTA, and willing to understand that when confronted with the Asian crisis, why ASEAN did not chose to give up economic integration, instead to accelerate the AFTA then bring about AEC? Simultaneously, after discussing the experience of AFTA, this essay would like to probe that whether the development thread of AFTA could be applicable to AEC? This essay chose ‘Literature Survey Approach’ and ‘Historical Analysis’ to analyze the procedure of ASEAN economic integration, from AFTA to AEC, and observes whether the challenges and experiences of AFTA could be the reference to AEC, and then concludes the motivation of AEC. Based on the de facto, this essay assumed that ASEAN member states should push forward the ASEAN economic integration to strength the power of their region, and increase their bargaining power. But because of the consideration on individual domestic economic development, it is very hard for them to integrate genuinely. At the end of this essay, we find out that since the beginning of AFTA in 1992, lots of scholars or observers doubt the appropriateness of the consensus decision-making and non-interference principles in ASEAN way, and coupled with the disparity between member states, internal divisions, the political turmoil of member states, and the issues of human rights and environment. These internal challenges make ASEAN struggles between domestic issues and regional economic integration, and let the procedure of economic cooperation often delays. In the case of these multiple challenges, the reason why ASEAN could adhere to economic integration, is because of the external pressure. Along with the increasing power of China, and the U.S. launch the ‘Back to Asia’ policy, the competence of power in East Asia region between China and the U.S. is rising. And the competence between the two super powers, really make ASEAN afraid of their leadership in East Asia regional cooperation. Hence, ASEAN should intensify their consociate in economic dimension, make sure that AEC would be accomplishes on time, and then initiate further economic cooperation. In general, when ASEAN confront with internal challenges and external pressure in AFTA or AEC, the internal challenges will be the difficulties to procrastinate the procedure of integration substantially. And although the external pressure will let ASEAN feel pressed in one way, in fact it would urge ASEAN to be more consolidated in the other way. So we could say that the external pressure is the motivation of ASEAN economic integration.