國際生鮮蘋果貿易非關稅障礙之估計——隨機邊界引力模型之應用

Abstract

本研究以生鮮蘋果為研究對象，利用隨機邊界引力模型進行分析，估計各國生鮮蘋果的潛在進出口值，以分析非關稅障礙對國際生鮮蘋果貿易的影響，並比較非關稅障礙對開發程度不同之國家的影響是否有所不同。本研究的分析對象為2001-2013年間國際生鮮蘋果貿易的20個主要交易國，研究結果顯示生鮮蘋果貿易主要受出口國之產量、進口國之人口、進口國之人均GDP以及兩國間FTA的簽署狀況影響。 20大生鮮蘋果貿易國在2001-2013年間之進出口效率偏低，平均進口效率為8.80%，而平均出口效率同樣只有9.27%，可見非關稅障礙在生鮮蘋果的貿易限制中扮演了重要的角色。另一方面，已開發國家的平均貿易效率為為10.72%（出口）與9.45%（進口），而開發中國家則僅有6.57%（出口）與7.59%（進口）。此結果顯示非關稅障礙對開發中國家的影響略高於已開發國家。 除此之外，非關稅障礙對各個國家的影響程度也有很大的不同，例如阿拉伯聯合酋長國的平均進口效率達23.83%，阿根廷則只有0.18%，這可能是因為各國對於非關稅障礙的標準不一所造成的。故各國應進行進一步的整合，並建立一統一的非關稅障礙制度，以使農產品貿易得以永續發展。

This thesis evaluates the impact of non-tariff barriers on the trade of fresh apples using a stochastic frontier specification of the gravity model. The empirical analysis is based on the transactions between twenty major fresh apple trading countries during the period 2001 to 2013. The estimation results suggest that trade flows of fresh apple are mainly affected by total productions of exporter countries, GDP per capita of importer countries, populations in importer countries, and signing status of FTAs. The stochastic frontier gravity model allows us to identify the efficiency of fresh apple trades of each country. The value of trade efficiency determines the deviation of actual trade from the frontier estimated. The average export and import efficiency of fresh apples are 9.27% and 8.80%, respectively, which are considered to be ineffective. This result suggests that non-tariff barriers are taken an important role in trade restrictions of fresh apple. Furthermore, average values of export and import efficiency of fresh apples for developed countries are 10.72% and 9.45%, respectively. But developing countries only contain 6.57% of export efficiency and 7.59% of import efficiency. This indicates that the impact of non-tariff barriers on developing countries is greater than on developed countries. In addition, fresh apple trade of each country has suffered varying extent of influence from non-tariff barriers. For example, the average import efficiency of United Arab Emirates is 23.83% but it’s only 0.18% in Argentina. This may due to the measurement criterions of non-tariff barriers are different among each country. Thus for sustainable development in agricultural trade, further integration and developing uniform standards for non-tariff barriers should be considered.