每月營收公告對投資人決策之影響

Abstract

為使投資人獲得更具及時性之會計資訊，證交法第第三十六條第一項第三款規定上市公司需於每月十日以前，公告並申報上月份營運情形。每月營收公告為我國特有制度，諸多國內文獻試圖探討此制度對投資人而言是否具有資訊價值，然而，大多數研究卻存在「研究樣本數量不足」及「無法取得實際營收公告日」等限制，雖然學者對於「每月營收公告對投資人而言具備資訊價值」存在共識，然而部分研究之統計結果卻缺乏顯著性，導致無法支持此結論。 本研究主要目的在於克服前述研究限制，利用民國102年至民國103年間上市公司營收公告資訊共計18,782筆樣本，及每筆樣本之每月營收實際公告日，以驗證每月營收公告是否具有資訊價值。本研究實證分析結果發現，每月營收公告與股價異常報酬率具有正向關係，即每月營收公告資訊確實會影響股票投資人決策。進一步探究每月營收公告代表的市場訊息可發現，投資人對於營收公告釋放壞消息的反應，較營收公告釋放好消息的反應更為劇烈。再更進一步按照「營收公告是否存在持續性」將好消息及壞消息細分，本研究發現持續性消息較非持續性消息對投資人而言影響更大，且投資人對於持續性好消息的反應最大，對非持續性好消息的反應最小。

To let investors acquire more instant accounting information, the 36th regulation of the Security Exchange Act requires listed companies announce their revenue of last month before 10th day of current month. Since monthly revenue announcement is a unique regulation in our country, many researchers tried to find out whether the data coming from such rule contains useful information for investors. However, some of those researches were not capable of reaching enough samples, or others were not available to acquire the practical date of revenue announcement. Although most researchers agree that monthly revenue announcement contains information value for investor, such conclusions were rejected by statistic results since these results could not pass significant test. This study pays an effort on resolving research limitations mentioned in last paragraph. By using physical date of monthly revenue announcement, which containes 18,782 monthly revenue data in the period of 2013 and 2014, this study tested the information value of monthly revenue announcement. The results of physical analysis discover that the return of investment is positively response to information disclosed by monthly revenue announcement, which means monthly revenue announcement actually affect investment decision. Furthermore, if monthly revenue announcements reflect bad news, investor could have more intense response then those announcements reflect good news. In the mean time, this study discovered that investors pay more attention in sustainable information. Investors would response heavier when sustainable good news occurred, and would response lighter when unsustainable good news occurred.