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| DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
|---|---|---|
| dc.contributor.advisor | 雷立芬(Li-Fen Lei) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Yeow-Tiong Siang | en |
| dc.contributor.author | 宋耀中 | zh_TW |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-15T05:41:22Z | - |
| dc.date.available | 2012-08-10 | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2012-08-10 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2012-07-27 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Cabinet Office Strategy Unit, 2002. Risk: Improving Government’s Capability to Handle Risk and Uncertainty. Strategy Unit, London. http://www.strategy.gov.uk/2002/risk/risk/home.html
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Hanley, D. E., A. B. Mark, J. O. James, R. S. Shawn, and R. S. Elizabeth, 2002. “A Quantitative Evaluation of ENSO Indices. Notes and Correspondence,” J. of Climate., 16, 1249-. 1258 Horton, D., 1988. Underground Crops: Long-Term Trends in Production of Roots and Otbers, AR, USA: Winrock International Morrilton. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Irawan, B. 1998. Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-induced Climate Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Indonesia. Working Paper No. 61, Bogor, Indonesia: CGPRT Centre. IRRI (International Rice Research Institute), 2002. “Rice Fact”. (http://www.irri.org/Facts.htm#irrigated). Kessler, B., 2000. “Not So Frequently Asked Questions about El Nino” http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elNino/resources/elNinofaq.html Kim, H. and Y.-K. Lee, 2004. “Agricultural Policy Reform and Structural Adjustment: Historical Evidence from Korean Experience”. Proceedings of Policy Reform and Adjustment Workshop, October 23-25, 2003, Imperial College London, Wye Campus from International Agricultural Policy Reform and Adjustment Project (IAPRAP) Larsen, P. H., 2006. An Evaluation of the Weather Sensitivity of US Economic Sectors to the Weather. Completed as a Masters Thesis for Cornell University. McWilliams, J. R. and J. L. Dillon,1987. “Food Legume Crop Improvement: Progress and Constraints”. Proceedings of Canberra ACIAR, 1987. Mukherji, A. T. Facon, J. Burke, C. de Fraiture,, , J. M. Faures, B. Fuleki, M., Molden, D. Giordano, and T. Shah, 2009. “Revitalizing Asia’s Irrigation: To Sustainably Meet Tomorrow’s Food Needs”. Proceedings of International Water Management: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Naylor, R., W. Falcon, N. Wada, and D.Rochber, 2002. “Using El Nino Southern Oscillation Climatic Data to Improve Food Policy Planning in Indonesia”. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 38(1):634-655. Nicholls, N. and G. Beard, , 2000. The Application of El Nino Southern Oscillation information to seasonal forecasts in Australia. In Wilhite, D.A. (ed.). Drought: Volume I A Global Assessment, London and New York: Routledge. Podbury, T., T. C. Sheales, I. Hussain, and B. S. Fisher, 1998. “Use of El Nino Climate Forecasts in Australia”. Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 80(5): 1096-101. Scott, G. J., M. W. Rosegrant, and C. Ringler, 2000. “Roots and Tubers for the 21st Century: Trends, Projections and Policy Options”. IFPRI and CIAT, Food, Agriculture, and Environment Discussion Paper 31. Stone, R. and A. Auliciems, 1992. “SOI Phase Relationship with Rainfall in Eastern Australia.” Int’l. J. of Climatology 12: 625-636. Tawang, A., T. A. T. Ahmad, and M. Y. Abdullah, , 2002. “Stabilization of Upland Agriculture under El Nino-Induced Climatic Risk: Impact Assessment and Mitigation Measures in Malaysia”. Working Paper No. 61, Bogor, Indonesia: CGPRT Centre. Technically Advisory Committee (TAC), 1997. Report on the Inter-Centre Review of Root and Tuber Crops Research in the CGIAR, Washington, D.C: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Trenberth, K. E., 1997. Definition of El Nino. Bulletin of American Meteorology Society, August 1, 1997. Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2001. “Indices of El Nino Evolution.” J. of Climate, 14:1697-1701. Wallis, E.S. and D. E. Byt, (eds.), 1987. “Food Legume Improvement for Asian Farming Systems. Proceedings of an International Workshop, Khoon Kaen, Thailand, 1-5 September 1986”. Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research. Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 1993. “Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a Seasonally Adjusted Principal Component Index”. Proc. 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC, 52-57. World Meteorological Organization, 1999. The 1997-1998 El Nino Event: A Scientific and Technical Retrospective. Yokoyama, S., 2003. “ENSO Impacts on Food Crop Production and the Role of CGPRT Crops in Asia and the Pacific”. CGPRT Centre, Bogor, Indonesia. Yoshino, M., K. Urushibara, and W. Suratman, 2000. “Agricultural Production and Climate Change in Indonesia.” Proceedings of International Symposium on Climate Change and Variability, and their Impacts. Commission on Climatology.' The 29th IGC, August 9-13, 2000. Konkuk University, Seoul, Korea | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/46774 | - |
| dc.description.abstract | Agriculture activities in Asia and the Pacific are based on the Asian monsoon climate. Such climate conditions are periodic on an annual basis, resulting in a stable crop production movement with reference to the monsoon season in the region. The introduction of El Nino-related phenomenon added an abnormality that disturbed the fundamental modes of crop cultivation seriously impeded the production of food and other food crops in the affected areas. The abnormities induced by El Nino, included a shift of the rainy season, less rain, prolongation of the dry season and high temperatures, have caused serious damage to wide areas of the agricultural sectors. This paper is to measure the sensitivity of food crop production to the fluctuations in climate changes.
In this thesis, regression model was used to analyze the relationship between the El Nino phenomenon and its effect on production of rice, maize, soybeans, sweet potatoes, groundnuts, and cassava. The estimation period would be 1961-2010. The targeted regions are East Asia (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan), South East Asia (Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines) and South Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, Fiji). The production loss in El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years was characterized by: 1) absolute magnitude (El Nino years: 6.48 per cent versus non-El Nino years: 4 per cent); 2) simultaneous decline in both yield and area harvested (production loss in non-El Nino years was mainly caused by yield decline); and 3) single year phenomenon with recovery of production in the following year. Among the six major food crops, maize was the most sensitive to ENSO for both the area harvested and yield. Sweet potato was the next significantly ENSO sensitive crop with moderate to strong ENSO sensitivity in all regions examined. Rice is the least ENSO sensitive amongst the major crops in all regions examined. Cassava and groundnuts were not significantly affected by ENSO, although their production variability was larger than that of rice. Thus, the production stability of maize and soybean may be enhanced, by incorporating crop diversification of root crop in the region concerned. Based on the outcome of the analysis, strategic policies to overcome the damage could be through technological, managerial and administrative tactics. Farmers to reduce possible production decrease during drought should apply delaying the planting date. Alternatively, early harvesting is the second strategy. | en |
| dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-15T05:41:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-101-R99627026-1.pdf: 5040028 bytes, checksum: 474c1053e0b65760671463d9a276eb41 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 | en |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | Table of Contents
Acknowledgement .................................................................................................................................. i Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………………...…………… ii List of Tables ……………………………………………………………………………………………….…… v List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………....………. vi Chapter I Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Motivation ………………………………………………………………………………………. 1 1.2 Objectives ………………………………………………………………………………………... 5 Chapter II Background …………………………………………………………………………………...… 8 2.1 Benefit of the Observation of ENSO ………………………………………………...… 8 2.2Measurement of ENSO ………………………………………………….…………………. 10 Chapter III Methodology ………………………………………………………………………………… 13 3.1 El Nino Impact on Total Cereal Production ……………………………………… 13 3.2 Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity ………………………………….... 14 3.3 Frequency of El Nino …………………………………………………………………….... 16 Chapter IV Results and Interpretation …………………………………………………………….. 18 4.1 Data of Crop Production …………………………………………………………………. 18 4.2 El Nino Impact on Cereal Production ………………………………………………. 18 4.3 Characteristics of El Nino-Induced Production Loss …………………….. 21 4.4 Production Variability by Crop ……………………………………………………….. 28 4.5 ENSO Sensitivity by Crop ……………………………………………………………….. 35 4.6 Summation of Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity by Region 39 4.7 Summation of Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity by Crop .… 41 Chapter V Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………... 45 References …………………………………………………………………………………………………..… 50 List of Tables Table 2-1. The Temperature-Based Indices for SST …………………………………. 11 Table 3-1. Comparison of the Definition of El Nino …………………………………. 13 Table 4-1. Source of Data …………………………………………………………….. 18 Table 4-2. Results of Regression Analyses, Total Cereals, 1961-2010 (Total Asia Region) ……………………………………………………………………………….. 19 Table 4-3. Results of Regression Analyses, Total Cereals, 1961-2010 (South Pacific Region) ……………………………………………………………………………..… 20 Table 4-4. Results of Regression Analyses, Total Cereals, 1961-2010 (South East Asia Region) ……………………………………………………………………………….. 21 Table 4-5. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production and Area Harvested Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (Total Asia Region) …………………………………… 23 Table 4-6. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South Pacific Region) ……………………………………………………….… 26 Table 4-7. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South East Asia Region) …………………………………………………….… 28 Table 4-8. Production Variability by Crop, 1965-2010 ……………………………… 34 Table 4-9. ENSO Sensitivity by Crop in the Asia Region …………………………… 39 Table 4-10-1. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity in East Asia Region ……………..........................................................................................................…….. 40 Table 4-10-2. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity in South East Asia Region ........................................................................................................................................ 40 Table 4-10-3. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity in South Pacific Region . 41 Table 4-10-4. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity in Asia ............................ 41 Table 4-11-1. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Soybean) ....................... 42 Table 4-11-2. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Maize) .......................... 42 Table 4-11-3. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Cassava) ....................... 43 Table 4-11-4. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Groundnuts) .................. 43 Table 4-11-5. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Sweet Potato) ............... 43 Table 4-11-6. Production Variability and ENSO Sensitivity (Rice) ................................... 44 List of Figures Figure 2-1. Climatic Impacts of Warm ENSO during April to September …………..... 9 Figure 2-2. Climatic Impacts of Warm ENSO during October to March …………… 10 Figure 3-1. Production of Total Cereals, 1961-2010 …………………………………. 16 Figure 3-2. Area Harvested of Total Cereals, 1961-2010 ……………………………. 17 Figure 4-1. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (Total Asia Region) …………………………………………………………..… 22 Figure 4-2. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Area Harvested Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (Total Asia Region) …………………………………………………….… 22 Figure 4-3. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South Pacific Region) ………………………………………………………..... 24 Figure 4-4. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Area Harvested Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South Pacific Region) …………………………………………………… 25 Figure 4-5. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Production Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South East Asia Region) …………………………………………………….… 27 Figure 4-6. Percentage Deviation from the Trend in Area Harvested Reduction Years, 1961-2010 (South East Asia Region) ………………………………………………… 27 Figure 4-7. Production Variability, Soybean (1965-2010) …………………………… 29 Figure 4-8. Production Variability, Maize (1965-2010) ……………………………... 30 Figure 4-9. Production Variability, Groundnut (1965-2010) ……………………….... 30 Figure 4-10. Production Variability, Cassava (1965-2010) ………………………….. 31 Figure 4-11. Production Variability, Sweet Potato (1965-2010) …………………….. 31 Figure 4-12. Production Variability, Rice (1965-2010) ……………………………… 32 Figure 4-13. ENSO Sensitivity, Soybean (1961-2010) ………………………………. 35 Figure 4-14. ENSO Sensitivity, Maize (1961-2010) …………………………………. 36 Figure 4-15. ENSO Sensitivity, Groundnut (1961-2010) …………………….....…… 36 Figure 4-16. ENSO Sensitivity, Cassava (1961-2010) ……………………………….. 37 Figure 4-17. ENSO Sensitivity, Sweet Potato (1961-2010) ………………………….. 38 Figure 4-18. ENSO Sensitivity, Rice (1961-2010) ………………………....………... 38 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.title | 聖嬰-南方振盪現象影響亞洲地區穀物之研究 | zh_TW |
| dc.title | The Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation Events on Cereal Production in Asia | en |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dc.date.schoolyear | 99-2 | |
| dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
| dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 張靜貞(Ching-Cheng Chang),羅竹平(Chu-Ping Lo) | |
| dc.subject.keyword | 農業，農業產業化,農業生產,輸出,氣候變化,氣候變異,天氣變化, | zh_TW |
| dc.subject.keyword | agriculture,agricultural industry,farming,production,output,climate change,climate variability,weather change, | en |
| dc.relation.page | 52 | |
| dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
| dc.date.accepted | 2012-07-30 | |
| dc.contributor.author-college | 生物資源暨農學院 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author-dept | 農業經濟學研究所 | zh_TW |
| 顯示於系所單位： | 農業經濟學系 | |
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