長江三角洲基礎建設與經濟發展之空間計量分析

Abstract

本研究對長江三角洲基礎建設與經濟發展之連結進行實證分析。以長江三角洲2002年~2006年73個縣級市為空間單位，利用空間追蹤資料模型分析長三角的經濟發展。結果顯示人均GDP與代表基礎建設變數的公路網密度與電話通訊戶數皆呈現正向關係。其他經濟變數如人口密度、外商投資與人力資本也是影響長三角經濟發展的重要因素。 另外，空間變數也與人均GDP呈現顯著為正的關係，代表長江三角洲之經濟發展的確存在空間外溢效果。

This thesis provides empirical evidence on the links between infrastructure and economic development in the Yangtze River Delta. We used panel spatial models to analyze the economic development in 73 of the delta’s counties during the period 2002-2006. We found that the GDP per capita is positively related to infrastructural variables such as transport network density and telecommunication. Other economic variables such as population density, R&D, FDI, and human capital are important determinants of economic development. The GDP per capita is also positively related to spatial variables, which indicates the existence of the spillover effect in the Yangtze River Delta.