中鋼基本價值分析

Abstract

2008年美國發生次級房貸風暴，進而引起全球性的經濟衰退，信貸緊縮、資產價值、國際貿易與經濟活動皆受到嚴重的衝擊，根據IMF的預測，2009年台灣的經濟成長率將下降7.4%，而全球經濟成長率將下降0.5%，這是自二次世界大戰以來最低的成長率，而台灣股價加權指數也從2007年的高點9859點一路下跌至2008年底的3955點，美國道瓊工業指數從2007年高點14198點下跌至6469點，對所有的投資人而言皆是一場惡夢。 鋼鐵產業受景氣影響劇烈，中鋼為台灣重要發展的基本工業龍頭，在經濟情況惡劣的環境下，加以面對全球鋼鐵業的購併趨勢及東協的形成，究竟其股權價值為何是本研究想要探討的問題。本研究從鋼鐵業的歷史開始，先了解整體鋼鐵業上下游的競爭情況以及目前世界鋼鐵業的變化趨勢，然後分析未來可能的變化情況，再以自由現金流量法估計中鋼在不景氣的環境下，其最保守的價值為多少。 首先先分析中龍擴建案完成後對台灣整體鋼鐵需求的影響及變化，再以合理的方式計算其營收1.在外銷市場維持不變;2.東南亞市場被消滅;兩種情況下的股權價值，最後以投資報酬率折現分別得到在外銷市場維持不變的情況下，最保守價值為每股27.46元，而在東南亞市場被消滅的情況下，最保守價值為每股26.83元。

2008, the subprime mortgage crisis hits U.S., and it further spreads to the whole world, causing global economic recession and credit crunch. Asset value, international trade, and economic activities were all being impacted. According to the prediction of IMF, the GDP growth rate of Taiwan will be down by -7.4% YoY, and the worldwide GDP growth rate will be down by -0.5% as well, the worst numbers after World War II. TAIEX has dropped from 9859 - the peak point of 2007 to 3955 at the end of 2008. INDU has also plummeted from 14198 - the peak point of 2007 to 6469. This economic recession is a nightmare for all investors. Steel industry is very sensitive to economic cycle. China Steel, the leader company of fundamental industry, acts as an important role in the Taiwanese economic development has also faced challenges from gloabal economic illness. To be specifics, the merger and acquisition trend of the global steel industry and the forming of Association of South-east Asian Nations. In this thesis, it will focus on the discussion the actual stock value of China Steel. To begin with, the history of steel industry, understand the competition situation of upstream and downstream and the trend of global steel industry, then analyze the possible changes in the future. In the end, using Discounted Cash Flow Method to estimate what is the most conservative value of China Steel. In this thesis, it will analyze the stock value of China Steel by using the following steps: Firstly, analyzing the exapanding project of Dragon Steel how will it affect the demand of Taiwanese market. Secondly, calculating its revenues by assuming export market unchaned, or Southeast Asian market has been elimated. Under the export market unclanged, it will have the most conservative value of NT 27.46 per share; but in the situation of Southeast Asian market has been eliminated the most conservative value will be NT 26.83 per share.