財務分析師研究報告的品質探討-跨界分析

Abstract

本文探討財務分析師跨界分析時的盈餘預測表現，跨界分析在此是指被分析股票的股票報酬或會計盈餘與該分析師所分析的其它股票具有較低的關連性。本文提供一較細膩的指標來衡量跨界分析，而這指標是可幫助投資人判斷分析師盈餘預測的品質。 當分析師跨界分析時，資訊的收集與處理較無規模經濟；因此實證結果也顯示，跨界分析的盈餘預測準確度較差且相對樂觀，但相對樂觀會隨分析時間愈久而逐漸降低。此外，實證也顯示，跨界分析師較少去調整盈餘預測、更容易模仿其它分析師的預測，當面對新資訊時也較無法迅速做出反應。這些證據顯示，跨界分析時其盈餘預測的品質表現相對較差；也因此，跨界分析的盈餘預測誤差對於市場造成的波動相對較小。本文也發現，分析師調整盈餘預測的頻率，不只受到被分析的公司特點所影響，也會受到分析師特點所影響。

This paper explores analyst performance regarding weakly correlated companies, of which the capital market returns and/or accounting earnings are weakly correlated with those of the remaining firms in the analyst’s coverage portfolio. The empirical results show that earnings forecasts for weakly correlated companies are less accurate, more upward biased, and less frequently revised; consequently, the stock market responds less to errors associated with forecasts for these companies. Specifically, the degree of forecast bias weakens over time since the analysts’ cross-field coverage. We also provide evidence that the revision frequency of earnings forecasts is influenced by the characteristics of an analyst. Our findings indicate that an analyst who provides cross-field research reports in comparison to other analysts.