台商赴大陸「環渤海地區」投資之影響因素分析

Abstract

本文的主要研究目的在以結合區域發展策略與投資區位選擇的角度，探討影響台商在環渤海地區的投資行為，研究期間為1996年至2007年。具體而言，主要有以下三個研究目的： 首先，對環渤海地區的區位因素進行SWOT分析，將之內部的優勢(strengths)、劣勢(weakness)與外部的機會(opportunities)及威脅(threats)等相互配對。先利用代表區位因素的總體經濟指標，與競爭也區相比較後確定環渤海地區的區位優勢和劣勢；利用透過對官方檔案、研究報告和相關的研究評論等文獻，確定足以影響地區區位因素改變的事件，為最地區外部的機會與威脅。本部份主要是，做為質化分析的資料。 第二，建立台商赴環渤海地區投資的區位因素之量化實證。模型以經濟部投審會所公佈的核准赴環渤海地區投資額為因變數，代表在當地的台商投資行為；採取此二市三省(北京市、天津市、河北省、遼寧省、山東省)之總體經濟變數做為區位特性之自變數，代表區位因素的變動情況。利用Panel Data建立固定效果迴歸模型，探討台商赴環渤海地區投資之區位定性因素。 第三，是將SWOT分析所提出的行動策略和台商投資的區位選擇特性相結合，在此基礎上檢視台商投資行為與該地區發展趨勢的關連性。 經過實證分析結果顯示： 研究結果一，在未來環渤海地區的發展策略中，生產方式雖限於環境條件的限制，但在人力資源和生產基礎的優勢下，將以低耗能、高效率的產業為主，廠商在投資佈局上，應以研發、高技術和服務性的產業為優先。良善的基礎交通設施和穩定的內需消費市場，使得該地區的成長模式更有別於其他地區的外向型導向模式。政府的優惠政策將更傾向適用於高科技、金融服務產業為主，傳統製造業的優惠勢微。 研究結果二，台商投資的區位選擇特性實證結果，產業聚集、地區政府的效率是台商在選擇在環渤海地區投資的重要因素，而且台商傾向在台商聚集多和地方政府效率高的地區投資。而分別代表市場規模和基礎建設的GDP和鐵路營運密度，雖然係數為正，但沒有通過統計驗定。此外，台商以外貿為投資導向的假設也沒有成立。因此，台商在環渤海地區投資的最終市場目標，似乎是較傾向「內需市場」但仍需要更進一步的驗證。最後是代表勞動成本和人力素質的接受高等教育人數，係數為正，但沒有通過統計檢定的顯著水準。因此，台商在當地是否是以追求勞動成本低廉或技術性人力，仍值得再做進一步探討。 研究結果三。首先是市場規模部份，近年來，由於環渤海地區的GDP總量成長穩定，再加上出口導向型的發展本不如兩競爭地區，使得台商投資在現階段明顯調整為重視當地市場、減緩對出口的依賴是屬於合理的佈局。在生產成本部份，在勞動成本、營運成本持續上升的情況下，台商在環渤海地區投資時，生產成本則可能成為主要的考量，例如當地的勞動成本與台商投資已經開始有負向的影響。在社會運作機能部份。就社會服務機能而言，環渤海地區的年平均第三產業比重與競爭地區相比，仍保有一定程度的領先；2002年之後，台商投資與當地的社會服務機能轉為正相關，且皆具統計檢定的顯著水準。 聚集經濟和訊息成本部份。就工業企業家數而言，環渤海地區朝大型企業發展的速度正在加快中；就累計外商投資而言，與長三角、珠三角地區相比，新增外資差距又有擴大的現象；就勞動素質而言，落後競爭區域情況從2003年之後開始擴大。從聚集經濟和訊息成本的角度而言，台商在轉向與整體外資投資高的地區聚集，對台商群聚和當地企業的依賴有減少的情況，而與勞動素質人力仍為正相關。 在政府職能的部份。就財政支出而言，自2003年後環渤海地區的政府財政支出成長快速；2002年之後台商赴環渤海地區的投資額與與當地前期的財政支出呈正相關。就施政能力表現而言，台商赴環渤海地區的投資額與當地的政府執政表現轉為負相關。就貪污情況而言，台商赴環渤海地區的投資額與貪污，相較2002年以前轉為正相關。在此段期間，鑑於環渤海地區地方政財政支出成長加快，台商應多留意其施政重點，以獲得來自於公部門的資源挹注。而貪污情況在近年來的發展並沒有改善，雖然仍不阻礙台商在此階段的持續投資，但其可能是未來最不確定的負面因素。 在市場機能的部份。就對外開放程度而言， 2002年之後，由台商赴環渤海地區的投資額與與當地的對外開放程度轉為負相關。當政府干預能力而言，國有企業產值佔GDP比值差距可能持續擴大；台商投資與當地政府干預能力呈負相關，且具統計顯著水準。事實上，台商在該地區投資時，對市場開放程度仍有一定的要求，但在轉為當地市場導向投資後，該需要有減緩的情況。而政府干預市場的能力，已經對台商投資造成負面的影響。 最後在結論的部份是以上兩項分析結果為基礎，評估台商投資行為與該地區發展趨勢的關連性程度後，對今後台商在環渤海地區的投資提供幾項建議。

The purposes of the study is combining the aspects of regional development strategies and investment location chooing, then discuss what factors affect the investment behaviors of Taiwanese corporations` investment in the Huan Bo Hai Area (HBHA). The study period is between 1996 and 2007 and there are three objectives: Firstly，using the SWOT analysis to compare the macroeconomic indicators between the competive areas and the HBHA, then array the outcomes into four dimensions, internal strengths and weakness, external opportunities and threats. In this part, we refer a veriety of related documents and the quality analysis approach is used. Secondly，we establish the quantity empirical model to study what or how locaional factors affect Taiwanese corporations` investment behaviors. In this model, we used annual approved investment amount in the HBHA, which is refered from the Investment Commission, MOEA, as the dependent variable, and this variable represents Taiwanese corporations` investment behaviors. The independent variables are refered from the regional macroeconomic indictors of the HBHA. These represent the factors of regional conditions. Then, we used the Panel Data to build the fixed-effect model. Finally，we conbine the SWOT reaction strategies and the model regression outcomes to evaluate the correlative level between Taiwanese corporations` investment behaviors and regional development trends. Summaring the empirical analyzing outcomes suggest that: First of all，under the advantages of human resource and production foundation, the development strategies in the future will focus on low-consuming energy and high efficiency industries. Good quality of infrastructure and steadily growing domestic consumer market make this area have different growth pattern compared wih other areas that have outward-oreinted growth pattern. The government`s preferential policies incline to apply to high technology industry and financial servicing industry. On the other hand, traditional industry may receive less preferential benefits. Secondly, according to the empirical analyzing outcomes, the industry conglomeration and the office efficiency of local governments are the most important factors. In other words, Taiwanese corporations are more likely to invest in where Taiwanese already invested and local government that has high official office efficiency. The coefficients of GDP and density of rail, which represent domestic market and intrastructure individually, are positive, but they don`t pass the statistical test of level of significance. Furthermore, the hyopthsis that Taiwanese investment intends to export orientation does not be confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis that Taiwanese investment targets at domestic market still need farther observation. Finally, the high-educated human resource, which represents labor force quality and labor cost, has positive coefficient but does not pass the statistical test of level of significance. Hence, whether taiwanses businessmen pursue low labor cost or technological human force still need further study. Finally, we summarize the findings by using the above outcomes. In terms of the market scale, the GDP amount of HBHA has been growing steadily in reset years and has the less competitive export-oriented developmet. In the same period, Taiwanese investment is adjusting apparently to local market and less depending on export. This is a reasonable allocation. In terms of the production cost, because the labour cost and operation cost have been rising, the production cost may be an important consideration. For example, the local labour cost has shown a negative correlation with Taiwan investment. In terms of the social servcing mechanism, the average ratio of the third industry of the HBHA still leads, and its correlation with Taiwanese investment has turned out to be positive since 2002. In terms of conglomeration economy and information cost, the number of manufacturing enterprises in the HBHA grows rapidly, but the accumulated amount of FDI grows slowly, and the quality of labour force still be behind compared with the two competitive areas. In the same period, Taiwanese corporations` investment gradually turns to join where the foreign FDI has established, but still needs high-quality labour force. In terms of government governance, the financial expenditure in the HBHA has been growing since 2003 and its correlation with Taiwanese investment is positive. The correlation between the government performance and Tawianese investment becomes nagetive. The correlation between the government curruption and Tawianese investment became positive after 2002. Proven that fast growth of government expenditure, Taiwanese businessmen should take care of the local development policies in order to gain the benefits from the local governments. At the same time, the corruption may be a potential factor in the future. In terms of the market mechanism, the correlations of the level of open and the interruption of government with Taiwanese investment became negative respectively after 2002. Focusing gradually on the local market, in fact, Taiwanese corporations ease the demand on export market. But the ability of government interruption has become a negative factor to Taiwanese investment. Then, based on these analyses above, we suggest some advices for Taiwanese orporations who are going to invest in this area.