口蹄疫前後臺灣養豬戶效率分析 －以連續記帳戶樣本為例

Abstract

毛豬產業是臺灣最重要的畜產業，除了繁榮農村經濟外，對社會亦具有安定的作用，然而在1997年3月遭受口蹄疫的重創，生鮮豬肉失去海外市場，2002年加入世界貿易組織（WTO），開放豬肉進口之競爭，2006年國際穀物價格高漲，生產成本巨幅上揚，毛養豬產業不斷面臨嚴峻的考驗。臺灣毛養豬產業透過規模經濟，調整產業結構與成本結構，提升經營績效和競爭力，才能在如此艱難的環境中爭取一線生機。 本文以臺灣動物科技研究所豬場經營線上管理系統所，蒐集之1995~2008年連續記帳的112家養豬場為樣本，使用隨機邊界模型(SF)與最大概似法(ML)，衡量技術與、成本效率，同時剖析外在環境對技術與成本生產效率的影響。最後檢測藉由改善技術與成本效率而降低成本的潛能。實證結果顯示，口蹄疫前樣本的平均技術、成本效率分別為0.833、0.828，口蹄疫後樣本之平均技術、成本效率分別為0.847、0.837，口蹄疫後的技術與成本效率都比口蹄疫前高。效率干擾因子的分析指出，口蹄疫後西南部豬場、大學和高中學歷對技術與成本生產效率有顯著的負向效果，出售種豬及肉豬顯著地比只上市肉豬更有技術與成本生產效率，自配飼料或混合供料會比飼料外購更具技術與成本生產效率。假設營運達效率前緣，樣本養豬戶口蹄疫前可降低18.7 %的生產成本，口蹄疫後可降低19 %的生產成本。因此，本研究之主要結論為減少生產投入數量，調適資源配置，節省生產成本是養豬戶當務之急。

The swine industry is the most important livestock industry in Taiwan for generating prosperity and stabilization of the rural economy. However, suffering from heavy losses of the foot-and-mouth disease in March, 1997. The swine farmers lost their overseas market. Furthermore, competition from imports after the entry of the World Trade Organization in 2002 and the international grain price surge in 2006 have intensified the pressure faced by the swine farmers. The swine industry in Taiwan has to strive for a slim chance of survival in such a difficult environment through structural adjustment in economies of scale and efficiency improvement. This study selects a panel of bookkeeping hog farms in the bookkeeping system collected by the Animal Technology Institute Taiwan during 1995~2008 as the sample. The technical and cost efficiency are measured by using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). The exogenous environment affecting productive efficiencies are also analyzed simultaneously. At the end, swine producers’ potential for reducing cost through improving efficiency is also examined. Under the specification of variable returns to scale (VRS), the empirical results show that the mean technical and economic efficiency scores are 0.833, 0.828 respectively before foot-and-mouth disease, and 0.847,0.837 respectively after the disease. The production efficiency before foot-and –mouth disease is lower than it after the disease. And the quantity of the production is expanded on a large scale after the disease, too. The analysis of firm-specific factors affecting productive efficiency indicates that the farms located on the southwest of Taiwan, and the swine farmers’ education levels for college and high school get strong and significantly negative effect in the efficiency levels. On the other hand, farms producing feeder pigs and hogs are more efficient than those producing market hogs and farms self-preparing or mixed feeding are more efficient than those purchased feeding after the disease. Based on these results, the sample producers would be able to reduce their actual costs by 18.7 % before foot-and –mouth disease, and by 19 % after the disease by operating at the efficient frontier. Therefore, reducing input quantity, adjusting resources deployment, and saving production cost are the main conclusions of this study. All of them are the urgent matters for the pig farms.