以目標日期基金作為退休理財策略之評估

Abstract

隨著人類壽命延長、長壽風險增加，退休理財更顯重要。目標日期基金可作為一種退休理財策略，其基金規模快速成長，尤其廣被納為退休計畫中的預設投資標的，亦即當勞工沒有自行選擇標的時，提撥的錢就會自動投資在目標日期基金，這對於較不願花費太多心思在投資理財的人而言，是相當方便的投資工具。 在投資期間內，目標日期基金的資產配置會逐漸由股票等風險性資產轉移到債券等安全性資產，因其認為年輕人可承擔較多風險，而隨著年齡增長，風險承受度會下降，投資人僅須依照設定的目標日期（例如退休年份）來選擇基金。 相較於此，平衡型基金則是採固定的股債比例，投資人係依照風險容忍度來選擇。本研究以目標日期基金與平衡型基金作為退休理財策略，結果發現投資40年後，二者的最終價值沒有顯著差異，但平衡型基金的波動度較大。 又考量市場走勢，結果顯示無論進場時間好壞，對於最終價值皆無顯著影響。出場時間則有顯著的影響性，當接近退休時股市崩跌，目標日期基金能夠發揮保住價值的作用，但若接近退休時股市上漲，則錯失獲利機會。因此，對於風險趨避程度較高的投資人而言，因目標日期基金的波動度比平衡型基金小，且在退休前能夠保有一定的價值，應為合適之退休理財策略。

Retirement planning has become more and more important as the longevity risk increases, and the size of target-date funds has increased very fast in recent years. Target-date funds can be used as a retirement investment strategy, especially in the defined contribution pension plan as default funds. That is, for those employees who do not want to spend time on investing or do not know how to choose fund, their contribution will be invested in target-date funds directly. During the investment horizon, the asset allocation of target-date funds changes automatically; the stock ratio is decreasing and the bond ratio is increasing. Investors only have to decide the expected retirement time as the target date, and they can choose which target-date fund to invest in. In contrast, the stock/bond ratio is fixed in balanced fund; investors choose the funds depending on their risk tolerance. In this thesis, we find that the ending values are not significant different between target-date fund and balanced fund, but the volatility of balanced fund is higher. We also consider the market trend, and we find that the entry time will not affect the ending value, but the exit time has significant effect. If the stock market return slashes near retirement, target-date fund will protect investors from huge loss; however, if there is a bull market near retirement, the investors will miss the profit chance. Because target-date fund has similar performance but lower volatility compared to balanced fund and it can protect investors from huge loss at retirement, target-date fund may be a good alternative used in retirement planning for those who are risk-averse.