產業演進與代工廠商垂直整合決策分析－以筆記型電腦產業為例

Abstract

由於技術的日新月異，產業演進的速度與結構也呈現動態變化；其中，筆記型電腦產業在短時間歷經了垂直整合、分工，然後垂直再整合的結構變化，便是最好的例子。做為台灣經濟發展重要推手的筆記型電腦製造商，如何在動態變化的競局中，適時地掌握產業脈動，並採取適當的競爭與企業發展策略，以突破現有的毛利瓶頸，攸關此一產業的永續發展。 針對此一議題，本研究先以成長率為維度，利用趨勢線勾勒出筆記型電腦產業的發展軌跡，發現其演進呈現出「L型」走勢，而非理論中的「S型」或是「鐘型」軌跡。同時，我們也發現，在個人電腦的產業演進中，桌上型電腦已步入衰退期，取而代之的是近年平均成長率仍維持在20%以上的筆記型電腦，兩者的替代效果非常快速。然而，筆電產品的替代與成長，並未使個人電腦產業保持持續成長的動能，也證明了整體產業應已處於成長末期。 面對如此的產業演進下，筆電代工廠商逐步面對品牌廠轉嫁而來的市場降價壓力，導致毛利快速下滑。因應此一競爭情勢，代工廠採取垂直整合的佈局來防禦其毛利水準，但此舉卻降低了企業營運彈性，並且擴大了營運風險。此時，多角化經營便成代工廠下一步的因應策略，以廣拓其因為垂直整合所需的出海口。因此，「垂直整合」與「多角化經營」便成為代工廠交互運用的佈局作為。 本研究建議廠商若能強化「市場連結度」，拉近代工廠與終端市場的距離，同時再利用垂直整合、多角化所構成的三條發展軸線來驅動企業成長，將可讓代工廠在面對產業成熟期甚至衰退期時，仍可保有一定的毛利空間與價值鏈之附加價值。面對議價力緩步流失的產業結構下，如何提高己身價值創造基礎，是為代工廠在汰弱留強的洪流裡最重要的策略活動。

Fast changing technology and intensive competition drive the path of evolution of industry landscape very differently from what have been observed in the past. Notebook PC (NB, hereafter) industry would be a great example as it went through integration, disintegration and reintegration in a short period of time. How Taiwanese NB ODM manufacturers, who have been dominating the global supply for so many years, can cope with such structural change and sustain their dominance and, more importantly, profitability becomes a critical issue to study. Starting with a navigation across 20 years of PC industry evolution, this research illustrates the evolution of NB industry as a L-shaped curve, rather than theoretical “Bell-shaped” or “S-shaped.” In addition, along the decline of desktop PC, NB PC has increasingly substituted desktop PC with an average growth rate of 20%. Despite the fast growth of NB products, the overall growth momentum of PC industry still declines, a trend which indicates the end of maturity stage of the global PC industry. Given this kind of evolution, NB ODM firms are facing the pressure of margin erosion exerted by the brand companies. To enhance profitability, ODM firms undertook vertical integration strategy as defensive measure. However, while the vertical integration strategy may enhance strategic flexibility, it would increase operational risks as well due to over capacity. To digest the extra capacities, ODM firms have to diversify to other business areas. The interplay between vertical integration and diversification characterizes the growth path of NB ODM firms. In order to structurally change such a vicious circle and achieve sustainable growth, NB ODM firms are suggested to enhance the link with the end markets. With careful business configuration along vertical integration, diversification and market extension, ODM firms would be able to keep the margin and enhance their value added. Facing structural squeeze, NB ODM firms shall expand their scope of profit pool through capability upgrading. Strategic implications and future research based on these analytical results are also discussed.