雌激素在新店溪流域之環境風險評估與減量情境分析

Abstract

近年來新興污染物對於環境水體之污染已逐漸受重視，而環境荷爾蒙對生態 所造成之危害也已被確認，基於預防原則，本研究使用歐盟所發表之藥物及個人 保健用品之環境風險評估方法，探討在環境中雌激素於「2005 年基準狀態」、「一 切照舊(BAU)至2020 年狀態」、及以情境分析探討「施行減量策略至2020 年狀態」 時雌激素在環境中之濃度，藉以探討四種藥用雌激素(estrone (E1)、17β‐estradiol (E2)、17α‐ethynylestradiol (EE)及estriol (E3))對於新店溪流域可能造成之危害風險， 及其環境風險商數(risk quotient, RQ)。 2005 年基準狀態主要利用國家衛生研究院之國內健保局藥物統計使用量， 推估雌激素於新店溪之可能殘留濃度，以及偵測到的環境濃度，加以推估二者於 新店溪可能造成之風險；一切照舊至2020 年狀態則利用人口成長率進行推估雌 激素之使用量，並評估其於新店溪之風險；施行減量策略至2020 年狀態則以「從 搖籃到搖籃」所延伸出綠色藥局(green pharmacy)之概念提出四種較可行之減量 策略，分別為：醫療政策改變、回收計畫、污水處理場及混合減量。除了以情境 分析各減量策略對RQ 之削減值，本研究更進一步分析四種減量策略之成本有效 性，以期能提供管理者在對於新興污染物管理上之決策依據。 環境風險評估之結果，2005 年基準狀態及一切照舊至2020 年狀態時，四種 雌激素在新店溪中相加所得之總RQ (ΣRQ)遠大於1，極有可能對環境造成危害； 施行減量策略至2020 年狀態之四種減量策略施行後目標年之ΣRQ 雖仍大於1， RQ 削減率可達5.63‐99.98%不等。各減量策略經成本有效性辨識圖分析之結果發 現，最具成本有效性之結果為同時施行醫療政策改變與回收計畫，可達到41‐65% 之RQ 削減率，惟ΣRQ 仍大於1。然而如能完成大台北地區污水下水道建設，污 水經八里污水處理場二級處理後海洋放流，RQ 削減率可達到99.99%，且ΣRQ 可降至1 以下。

In recent years, the pollution of emerging contaminants is concerned, and the harmfulness of environmental hormones is identified. In this research the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) which is published by European Union is used to discuss three situations of estrogens environmental concentrations in the Sin-Dian River. The three situations are “baseline situation in 2005,” “business-as-usual (BAU) situation to 2020,” and “mitigative situation to 2020” discussed by scenario analysis. The risk quotient (RQ) of four pharmaceutical estrogens, estrone (E1), 17b-estradiol (E2), 17a-ethynylestradiol (EE), and estriol (E3), are discussed. In the baseline situation in 2005, the risks of the medical statistic data of Bureau of National Health Insurance from National Health Research Institutes to estimate the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) and measured environmental concentration (MEC) of estrogens are estimated and compared; in the BAU situation to 2020, the increasing PECs and risks of estrogen by population growth rate are estimated. In the mitigative situation to 2020, four probable mitigative strategies, medical policy, take-back program, wastewater treatment plant, and hybrid, are brought up from the “green pharmacy” of cradle-to-cradle. The cost-effectiveness of four mitigative strategies is also analyzed. The ΣRQs of baseline situation in 2005 and BAU situation to 2020 are larger than 1, and it is possible to be harmful in the environment. Although theΣRQs of mitigative situation to 2020 are larger than 1, the reducing rates are from 5.63-99.98%. The most cost-effectiveness result from the identification diagram for cost-effectiveness analysis is the implementation of both medical policy and take-back program, and theΣRQs are larger than 1 and reducing rates are from 41-65%. If the wastewater is treated by secondary treatment of Bali Wastewater Treatment Plant through the Taipei area sewage system, the reducing rate of RQs, which are lower than 1, can achieve to 99.99%.