中國鋼鐵公司投資價值之評價-中龍公司之效應分析

Abstract

美國次級房貸風暴造成了全球的金融危機，百年企業雷曼兄弟宣布倒閉、世界各國的股票嚴重下挫，甚至冰島宣布破產，全世界的投資者都在恐慌，並對未來的投資市場失去了希望。以投資者的角度而言，買賣股票原本只是轉移股權，持有股權原本只是做為股東，股東的權益來自於企業營運所獲致的利潤。此時，我們必須思考有哪些公司歷經許多經濟危機而屹立不搖，並計算這些公司真正的投資價值。本論文以中國鋼鐵公司為投資標的，探討國際鋼鐵產業行情，面對中國大陸與東亞各國鋼鐵廠的威脅，分析中國鋼鐵公司的競爭優劣勢，為評價過程做合理的基本假設，使用股東盈餘評價法評價中鋼之投資價值，並分析中龍案粗鋼五百萬年產量並不會使中鋼的產能過剩，假設中國鋼鐵公司將過去成功經驗複製於中龍公司之中，將中龍公司產能所帶來的獲利反應於未來中國鋼鐵公司的預測財務報表之中，本論文最終計算出中國鋼鐵公司每股價值為31.50元。

In 2008, Lehman Brother declares closed. Iceland government announce that country went into bankruptcy. The global financial crisis is due to the sub-prime mortgage storm. All investors of the world are scared and lose their hope. Stand on the viewpoint of investor, we shift the rights of the stock by stock’s transaction and hold the stock because we only want to be a shareholder and have company’s interest. All interests of the shareholder are from the profit which earned by company. We must think what company are never collapsed which even through all economic crisis. We have to consider how the real value of the company is. China Steel company is the invested target in the thesis. We discuss the new situation of the international steel industry and analyze the strength and weak of the China Steel company when it face to the threat which make by china’s steel firms and others steel firm from East Asia. As the result, we make all hypotheses to be reasonable and use method of shareholder’s profit to value the China Steel company. The production of the Dragon Steel will not be surplus. We assume that Dragon Steel learn and copy China Steel company’s succeed experience. Finally, we find out the China Steel stock’s price which is NT.31.50 per share by use the forward yearly financial report which react to the expected earning of the Dragon Steel’s production.