入口網站的企業評價: NHN與PCHOME的個案分析比較

Abstract

中文摘要

本論文是以財務報表及網路使用量兩方面來做韓國與、台灣入口網站的個案分析比較。文章裡我主張舊的方法—股票價格是測試未來公司可產生現金能力的合理方法。 依研究經驗,我主張使用現金流量折現模式，和研究對象是選擇兩家分別在自己國內股票市場上市的入口網站-韓國的NHN和台灣的PCHOME。最重要的是這篇論文提供對於實際履行DCF模型的深入探討。 評估各種模型內的因子為使用原本模型中最重要的挑戰。因而我以市場趨勢ˋ公司將來的利潤預測及WACC來改善企業評價。此外我在NHN及PCHOME的企業評價上來闡明延伸的論點。 值得注意的是，儘管現在許多網路公司高於市場平均的股價，在會計上的所得卻呈現負成長。在這些樣的環境之下，我運用以產業對手測試比較方法。DCF模型分析結果顯示目前股價仍屬合理以及具高預測能力。

最後，再以NHN與PCHOME的搜尋服務分析來比較兩家的市場表現，結果表示搜尋服務可為網路公司帶來較高的價值。

Abstract

This paper is designed primarily to investigate Korea and Taiwan internet portals to provide insights into the manner in which accounting information, along with measures of internet usage, is employed in the valuation of internet firms and provide a comparative study on their valuation. In this paper, I claim that the old rules still apply. The way to test the reasonableness of new economy stock prices is to model the company's ability to generate cash in the future.

For the empirical study, I employ the DCF valuation model and select two internet portals, one Korean company – NHN – and one Taiwanese internet company – PCHOME –, both are listed on the respective stock exchange – KOSDAQ and Taiwan Stock Exchange. Perhaps more importantly, this paper offers insights into the practical implementation of the DCF model. An important challenge to implementing the original model is estimating the various parameters of the model. So for more accurate analysis, we separately analyze their business units, E-business, online game and the portal (display ad or keyword ad) in our sample. Therefore, we improve the valuation by forecasting market trend and companies’ future earnings, and by inferring the WACC from the observed the companies’ stocks. We illustrate these extensions in a valuation of the companies, NHN and PCHOME.

Furthermore, many of the internet companies generate negative accounting income in spite of high stock price. Given these circumstances, the comparative approach for valuation with industry peers is conducted in a later part. Those analysis results show that the DCF model gives the reasonableness of their current stock prices and so indicates the high forecast capacity. As the last part, search service of NHN and PCHOME is analyzed to compare their current market performance and it suggests that search service could bring high value of internet portal.