有政黨傾向的新聞文章是否能影響選民的決策？一個以2016台灣中央選舉為背景的實驗研究

Abstract

本研究以實驗方法檢驗有政黨傾向的新聞文章是否能影響選民的政治偏好與決策。在2016台灣總統選舉前一個半月，我們隨機分派受試者閱讀支持不同政黨的新聞文章，並以問卷詢問其投票選擇以及對政黨或候選人的偏好。我們發現，對於傳統政黨，實驗組的文章能夠增加受試者投票給對應政黨的機率以及對相應政黨的支持度。該效果僅出現於接受到與自身偏好相同的文章之受試者身上，換言之，對於傳統政黨，新聞文章產生的是確證效果而非勸說效果。最後，我們亦發現新興政黨與傳統政黨之間有競爭關係，並且透過新聞文章，新興政黨能夠吸引部分傳統政黨的支持者。

This paper examines whether political news affects voters’ political preference and decisions. Subjects were randomly assigned to read articles supporting different parties or candidates during the one and half month before the 2016 Taiwanese General election election, and they were surveyed about voting decisions and preference to candidates or parties. We found evidence that for the existing old parties, treatment articles directly increases the possibility of supporting and voting for the treated parties. The effect appears only on the group that receives the same treatment as their original preference, that is, the effect is confirmation but not persuasive. Finally, competition between new and traditional parties exists, and new party treatment indeed persuades subjects voters originally support the old parties to their camp.