經濟景氣、警政、人口結構對犯罪率之影響， 以台灣1996年至2010年的縣市動態資料分析。

Abstract

本研究使用最小平方法(OLS)來作多元迴歸分析，探討經濟景氣、警政、人口結構對犯罪率的影響。首先回顧過去犯罪學和經濟學相關文獻，探討犯罪率與經濟景氣、警政、人口結構之間的互相關係。首先在犯罪率與經濟壓力問題上，本文選擇「受雇就業者每月主要工作收入人口比例」作為最主要解釋指標，並預期此解釋變數更能確切指出影響犯罪率的月所得人口族群。研究結果顯示犯罪率與經濟有負向關係，受雇就業者每月主要工作收入人口未滿15,000元比例與犯罪率有正相關。而警政支出增加可以有效遏止犯罪活動，其與犯罪率呈現負向關係。關於人口結構變數方面，相對於65歲以上人口，當25-39歲人口比例上升，對犯罪發生率有正的顯著影響，這顯示青壯年人口是我國犯罪年齡結構的主力。

This study employed the ordinary least squares (OLS) method to perform multiple regression analysis and explore the influence of economic climate, policing, and population structure on the crime rate. First, a review of the criminology and economics literature was conducted to explore the mutual relationship between the economic climate, policing, and population structure of a society and its crime rates. To explore the problem of crime rates and economic pressure, this study considered the “population ratio based on monthly income from major jobs of employees” as the main explanatory indicator and predicted that this variable would clearly show how the population groups based on monthly income influenced the crime rate. Research results show that crime rate has a negative relationship with the economy. The proportion of employees with monthly income of less than NT$ 15,000 has a positive correlation with crime rate. An increase in police spending can effectively check criminal activity and has a negative correlation with crime rate. With regard to demographic variables, compared to the population aged 65 years and above, an increase in proportion of the population aged 25–39 years shows a significant positive influence on the crime rate, indicating that the youth population is a main factor in the age structure of crime in Taiwan.