臺灣太陽電池產業設備供應商之進入策略研究

Abstract

全世界太陽光電產業在 2007 年已達到年量 4GW 的規模，估計到 2010 年會到達15GW 的年產量，在市場規模呈現指數成長的情況下，太陽電池設備產業的產值預期也將有高度的成長。本研究的主旨在探析台灣的設備廠商如何掌握這個成長的機會，進入太陽電池設備產業的領域。 本研究首先陳述各種太陽電池的結構、製程、特性與發展近況，經由產業分析歸納出關鍵生產設備為物理鍍膜機 PVD 與化學鍍膜機 CVD 兩種，同時，本研究根據產業利潤池的推估與各種設備的價格比較，也確立了PECVD設備為薄膜型太陽電池製程中的關鍵設備。然後，根據太陽光電產業中不同產品的生命週期導出，薄膜型太陽電池模組將會是下一個世代的重要產品走向；同時，由於晶片型太陽電池產業鏈晶圓片貨源缺乏的問題無法在短期內獲得解決，發展薄膜型太陽電池更多了需求面的支持。 在薄膜型太陽電池中CdTe有鎘污染的問題、CIGS與第三代染料薄膜型太陽電池的成品壽命尚無法達到市場要求的20年壽命下，非晶系技術已發展超過20年、主要專利已經結束、生產成本低與光電轉換效率可望提升等優勢下，本研究認為非晶與微晶新式組合的多層薄膜型太陽電池，將成為設備廠商進入薄膜型太陽電池市場有利的選擇。 基於此一進入選擇，本研究建議廠商採用「快速追隨者」的進入策略，透過對現有設備產業中各個參與者所擁有的競爭能力與整體競爭態勢進行比較分析後，本研究建議以「生產關鍵性設備」與「週邊設備商向外整合關鍵設備」的兩個進入模式，討論相關的價值網與商業模式設計。

As the world production of solar power is expected to grow from 4GW in 2007 to 15GW in 2010, the business opportunity associated with such tremendous growth for equipment suppliers is very high in the years to come. The issue of how the potential equipment entrants can capture and appropriate this opportunity motivates the present thesis research. This thesis starts from postulating the structure, production process, characteristics and trends of various solar cells products. Two types of equipments are identified as critical to the implementation of solar cell production, PVD and CVD, and PECVD would be the most profitable one for the production of thin film solar cell. In addition, judging from the product life cycle and industry dynamics of various generations of solar cell products, this research suggests that amorphous silicon thin film solar cell would grow rapidly and outperform other competing alternatives, including CdTe due to pollution concern, CIGS and dye types due to short life time. Moreover, we argue that the new structure of mixing amorphous silicon and microcrystalline silicon layers would be a potential direction for development. Based on these insights, this research suggests that taking a fast followe strategy cut into thin film equipment provider market would be a viable entry strategy. Following the 5 force analysis and value chain analysis on the existing players, we expect the competition between the existing players would be elevated. Our research therefore suggests two strategic directions, key equipment provider and peripheral equipment supplier reaching out integration, upon which value net and business model are discussed.