以系統動力學觀點探討商品力與促銷力對於網路企業營運績效之影響

Abstract

近年來國內網路購物蓬勃發展，成為新型態消費方式，然而究竟一個成功的購物網站應具備何種條件，且各條件交互作用後之動態影響如何，即成為本研究主要探討之核心。 本研究透過系統動力學方式全面性思考影響購物網站營業額之因素，首先與個案公司訪談確認購物網站營運流程、商品力與促銷力之組成構面與其它變數間之因果關係，進而建構量化之系統動力學模型。其中部分無量化數據之變數，本研究透過訪談與實際觀察個案公司歷史資料變化後合理預期以設定變數行為模式，並透過數次模擬以求調整至使模型效度最大的狀態。此一政策實驗室即為本研究執行各種政策測試之場域，陸續變化商品力或促銷力中單一構面、全構面，進而找出為達營業額目標下之最佳改善方案。茲將本研究之成果與結論列舉如下： 1.本研究建立一個可觀察商品力、促銷力、服務品質與營業額間動態關係之動態系統模型，其中包括顧客子系統、動機子系統、服務品質子系統與財務子系統。 2.經由本研究所建立之政策實驗室，探究商品力、促銷力在不同表現水準下，口碑效果、顧客重購率、平均顧客貢獻度、停滯比例等的變化狀況，進而在長短期下帶給營業額何種衝擊。 3.經由政策實驗室的測試，探究服務品質給予改善政策加乘或抵銷之效果。並探討基礎建設(資訊系統與人力)對於商品力、促銷力、服務品質增長上之自然限制。 4.經由系統模擬後，本研究建議個案公司若欲達2005年營業額目標，應提升點閱率成長率、價格競爭力與名牌比例，並維持或提升服務品質以使商品力與促銷力之改善得以彰顯。實際可行之作法為放寬付款限制、取得商品開發權力、增加有品牌之商品數量並提供商品組合模糊價格帶以強化價格競爭力。

The goals of the thesis are to find out the key abilities that a successful shopping website must have by system dynamics approach, and to design an improvement policy for attaining the revenue target of the company under studied through an all-construct-view simulation. We interviewed managers of the company under studied in order to define the merchandise power, promotion power and service quality that affect the performance of the company’s revenue. Through the study of this paper, the results and contribution of this thesis are as follows: 1.Build up the business model of the company under studied which we can observe the dynamic relationship between merchandise power, promotion power and revenue by system dynamics approach. The model is composed of customer subsystem, motive subsystem, service quality subsystem and finance subsystem. 2.Through the simulation of the model, under different level of the merchandise power and promotion power, we observe their impact on revisit rate, draining rate, word-of-mouth effect and average customer contribution rate, furthermore, short-run and long-run impact on company’s revenue. 3.Through the simulation of the model, we find out how the power of service quality doubles or minuses the company’s revenue. Besides, we discuss the growth limit that capacity of information system puts on the company’s revenue. 4.After the simulation of the model, in order to attain the 2005 revenue target, the company under studied should raise its click rate, price competitiveness and name brand percentage with the same or better service quality.