台灣觀光產業與社經特質關係之研究

Abstract

本研究主要在探討台灣觀光產業的現況及其社會經濟特質之關係，並以觀光天數及消費估計觀光之需求，主要根據觀光局2003年至2006年的《國人旅遊狀況調查報告》以及《來臺旅消費及動向調查報告》共四年的原始調查資料，再加以合併各種總體消費及指標資料。被解釋變數為旅遊天數及消費，因為資料本身的特性，因此選擇以零截尾負二項模型（Zero-truncated Negative Binomial Model）及零截尾的迴歸模型（Zero-truncated Regression Model），分別探討影響國內旅客及來台旅客觀光天數及消費的因素。將影響因素分成經濟變數、旅遊特性變數、時間變數、及個人特質變數四大群組，對國內外的影響因素做一對照及比較。不同於一般觀光計量研究使用時間序列資料（time series data）的分析方式，本研究為符合資料本身的特性，選擇以橫斷面資料（cross-section data）中的混合資料（pool data）的方式做分析。 簡單的資料統計中，國內外觀光客在台旅遊時皆有不同的特性，國人國內觀光主要以和家人當天來回的純粹觀光活動為主，且集中在中低所得，有明顯的淡旺季；外人來台觀光在歐美國家主要以中高所得者的商公務觀光為主，亞洲國家則以一般的觀光為主，最大的觀光客來源為國日本，無明顯淡旺季。根據模型分析結果可以發現，國人國內觀光天數主要受到所得、娛樂成本、同伴、旅行期間、季節的影響；國人國內觀光消費主要受到所得、交通成本、同伴、旅行期間、季節的影響。而外人來台觀光天數主要受到匯率、住宿成本、娛樂成本、教養成本、觀光目的、季節、距離的影響；外人來台觀光消費則主要受到所得、匯率、娛樂成本、教養成本、季節的影響。

This study examines the current situation and social-economic characteristics of tourism industry in Taiwan, and using the length of stay and expenditures to estimate the demand of tourism. The data comes from the original sampling data of “Annual Survey Report on Visitors Expenditure and Trends in Taiwan” and “Survey of Travel by R.O.C Citizens” from 2003 to 2006, which is produced by Tourism Bureau, Taiwan, and combines with the aggregate data of consumption and index. Because of the characteristics of data, the Zero-truncated Negative Binomial Model, and Zero-truncated Regression Model have been set up, in order to discuss the factors that influence the length of stay and expenditures of tour around Taiwan respectively in Taiwan and foreign country tourists. In addition, variables are assorted to four groups – economic, characteristics, time, and personal variables and compared with these effects between tourist in Taiwan and foreign countries. Different with the time-series data which most tourism research used, this study uses the pool data of cross-section data in order to fit the data characteristics. In descriptive ststistics, there are many differences between tourists in Taiwan and foreign countries. Tourists in Taiwan mainly make sightseeing tour with family members; the length of stay is less than one day; people who is middle and low income is the main tourists, and the high season is obvious to survey. Comparatively, tourists in Europe and America mainly make business tour, but Tourists in Asia mainly make sightseeing tour. The largest sourses of foreign tourists is Japan, and the high season is not as obvious as tourists in Taiwan. In the empirical model, the length of stay in Taiwan tourists is affected by income, entertainment cost, company, travel time, and season; the expenditures in Taiwan tourists is affected by income, transportation cost, company, travel time, and season. And the length of stay in foreign countries tourists is influenced by exchange rate, stay cost, entertainment cost, education cost, propose, season, and distance; the expenditures in fortigh countries tourists is influenced by income, exchange rate, entertainment cost, and education cost, and season.