永續流域管理支援決策工具之建立

Abstract

為確保社會發展能朝正確的永續發展方向前進，合適的永續性政策決策將扮演重要的角色。本研究提出永續性流域支援決策管理架構，將流域永續發展推動分為凝聚願景與決策階段、輔助願景達成之行動計畫階段、改善流域涵容能力階段等三階段，並建立各階段之支援決策工具，以提供永續性政策決策關鍵的分析及參考依據。在凝聚願景與決策階段，本研究應用網路分析程序法(ANP)綜合評估所有影響流域決策之因子，並形成決策者共同之流域發展願景；本研究並提出願景政策動態修正之因應方法，用以評估永續性政策之適用性。在輔助願景達成之行動計畫階段，為達成願景對經濟發展、水質保護與社會公平性之期望，本研究建立考量公平性之總量管制模式做為支援決策工具，並應用Gini coefficient做為污染分配公平性之客觀評估依據；本研究亦應用資料包絡分析法(DEA)針對流域可容許污染排放總量與污染分配公平性，評估不同集污區分區方式之效率。最後在改善流域涵容能力階段，為同時改善河川涵容能力與流域污染分配公平性，本研究提出結合模擬退火法(SA)與資料包絡分析法之排污口規劃最佳化模式。本研究每一階段之支援決策工具，均以頭前溪流域為研究案例作為說明。

Ensuring society follows sustainable developmental paths, proper policy and decision making on sustainability play an important role. This study proposes a sustainable watershed management framework for supporting decision making. The framework consists of three stages, including formation of visions, development of action plans to implement vision, and improvement of basin assimilation capacity. The decision support tools are developed for each stage to provide important analyses and suggestions to policy making. This research applies Analytic Network Process (ANP) to determine visions for basin development. A dynamic modification method is also proposed to make sure that policy making on sustainability is proper. Action plans to implement vision includes developing an optimization model to maximize assimilation capacity and to allocate the capacity with considering equity. The Gini coefficient is used in evaluating the equality of waste load allocation. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) considering in assimilation capacity and equity is applied to estimate the efficiency of different zoning rules in basin. To improve basin assimilation capacity and equity, an optimization model combining Simulated Annealing Algorithm (SA) with DEA is formulated to determine the best locations of point pollutant discharges. The TouChen River is taken as a study site to explain the procedures of decision support tools in each sustainable management stage.