新世紀巴西經濟社會改革與結果,2003-2010

Abstract

本文旨在探討魯拉總統任內經社改革內容與成果，以及巴西國家角色與經社改革之問題。本文的分析架構主要有二：1. 經濟與政府角色相互交集的關係；2.經濟同時鑲嵌在巴西國內社會總體以及在新自由主義全球化之上。本文是由經濟的社會鑲嵌概念架構分析魯拉之經社改革的重點，以及當前巴西經濟民主與社會民主的侷限。 巴西從1964年到1980年代，進行第二階段進口替代工業化，也接受國際經濟組織如世界銀行提出的結構性改革計畫，而大量引入外國資本與技術，以加速經濟成長。負債發展策略固然成就了1968-1974年的「巴西奇蹟」，卻也造成1980年代外債危機。1995年卡多索總統上任後，採取新自由主義路線，推動多項重要經濟社會政策，在經濟方面主要以金融自由化為主的經濟改革，且採取基於市場機能和減少政府角色的新發展模式，包括削減公共支出、吸引外資、平衡進出口、穩定物價等，但失業、社會不均與貧窮、貿易赤字以及外債利息增加的問題仍然存在。 新世紀魯拉總統於2003年上任後，仍延續新自由主義經濟政策，並於2007年提出新發展主義策略，企圖做適度的重分配政策，以提升經濟與社會發展，其企圖拉攏本土資本家與外資以成就經濟發展，但仍未解決巴西貧富不均與貧窮問題。魯拉任內重視社會改革，其社會改革重點有家庭津貼計畫、土地改革、教育、就業以及社會保障。其改革結果包括中產階級人口增加，家庭津貼計畫使全國四分之一人口受惠，讓貧窮階級的小孩能夠接受教育，也使貧窮階級增加向上流動的機會；家庭津貼計畫的實施也直接影響兒童與青少年的入學率；土地改革也使無土地農民階級受惠，並設立土著居住區；就業改革成果包括勞動參與率提高，勞工階級除了有最低工資提升，有正式契約受雇者增加，不穩定就業率降低，六大都會區平均實質所得增加，受雇勞工社會安全提撥比率也提升。此外，魯拉也基於國家財政考量進行社會保障改革。但是魯拉的社會經濟改革成就若由經濟民主與社會民主面向檢視之，則仍是很有限度的，有待巴西未來繼續的社會經濟民主改革。 巴西魯拉政府的國家發展策略，是國家也積極介入經濟與社會，而呈現巴西獨特的國家角色與發展途徑。魯拉政府在第2任期內，擴大進行社會民主改革，但只能提供社會大眾有限度的社會權與社會保障。魯拉雖然積極發展穩固的國家資本主義，但國家角色仍然缺乏足夠的政治意志力，很難超越目前經社改革的成就。 本論文的研究發現包括：1. 巴西政府角色與經濟發展兩者相輔相成；2. 巴西經濟是鑲嵌在國內社會整體以及外在的新自由主義全球化之上。展望未來，巴西政府與經濟、市民社會的合作關係，在於新政府有否可能選擇是要有助於國內資本家的發展，或是要選擇繼續深化的所得重分配政策。若從經濟的社會鑲嵌概念而言，全面的經濟發展必須鑲嵌在社會整體，因此巴西經濟的持續成長除了必須仰賴企業投資之外，中產階級與所有勞工的生產與消費也同樣重要。國家政策如何完全納入中產階級與所有勞工的需求，也成為羅賽夫總統上台後必須面對的課題。

The purpose of this article is to discuss the socio-economic reforms and results that Lula had done during his presidency. Issues of Brazil's state role and economic reform are also discussed. This article mainly holds 2 analytic framework:1. Relationship of mutual intersection of economic and government characters；2. Economy is at the same time embedded in social totality of Brazil and neo-liberal globalization. This thesis is to analyze the key point of Lula's economic and social reform by the social embeddedness conceptual framework, and limitations of recent Brazilian economic democracy and social democracy. From 1964 to 1980, Brazil has entered the second phase of import-substitution industrialization, and has also accepted the structural reform plan provided by international economic organizations such as World Bank. This greatly imports foreign investments and technology, in order to accelerate economic growth. Debt development strategy indeed accomplished the “Brazilian Economic Miracle”, but which also invoked the external debt crisis that occurred in 1980. After Cardoso was elected President in 1995, he adopted the neo-liberal route, promoted various important economic and social strategies. In the economic aspect, the economic reform is mainly financial liberalization, which also adopts new development modes based on market functions and modes that lessen government roles. This includes cutting down public expenditure, attract foreign investments, balancing exports and imports, and stabilizing commodity price etc. However, unemployment, social inequality, poverty, trade deficit, and issues coming from external debt interests still exist. After Lula was elected as President in 2003 during the new millennium, he continuously adopted the neo-liberal economic strategy. In 2007, he proposed the neo-developmentalist strategy, intending to make suitable redistributing strategy, to improve economic and social development. He also intends to rope in local capitalists and foreign capital to accomplish economic development. However, the issues of disparity between the rich and the poor and poverty have still not been solved. During Lula's role, he pays attention to social reform, putting the reform key point on Bolsa Familia Program, the land reform, education, employment and social security. The results of the reform include that the middle class population increases, Bolsa Familia Program benefits ¼ of the national population, children of poor families can receive education, and the poverty class gets the opportunity to improve their social status. Also, the implementation of Bolsa Familia Program also directly influences the enrollment rate of children and teenagers. Land reform also benefits farmers that do not own any land and establishes an indigenous residential area. The result of employment reform includes that the labor-force participation rate increases, working class besides receives a raise in their minimum wage, employees with formal contract increase, unstable unemployment rate decrease, average real income of the 6 major metropolitan areas increases, social security contribution rate of hired laborers increases. Furthermore, due to state finance considerations, Lula also conducts social protection reform. However, if Lula's the socio-economic reform achievement is inspected by the economic democratic and social democratic aspects, there are still many limitations. There are still expectations of continuous future socio-economic democratic reform of Brazil. The research findings of this thesis include: 1. Brazil's government role and economic development benefit each other, with the country aggressively stepping in between economy and society；2. Brazil's economy is embedded in the social totality and external neo-liberal globalization. Looking to the future, the whole economic development of Brazil must be embedded in the social totality. Therefore, the continuing growth of Brazilian economy besides having to depend on enterprise investments, middle class and the production and consumption of all laborers are of equal importance. How national strategy completely incorporates to the needs of the middle class and all labor, is the issue that President Rousseff must face when she comes into power.