防禦性公投政策過程—以政策圖像匯聚模式解析

Abstract

本文旨在透過「防禦性公投政策過程」之政策變遷、政治發展意涵初始理解、既有政策過程的理論性重點釐清等，整合與演繹出得以解析政策過程中，行動者所持具「考量」與其所置處「情勢」間綿密關聯性的替代性分析模式—「政策圖像匯聚模式」。再而藉此分析模式解析「防禦性公投政策過程」的實際演進成因，釐清朝野政黨聯盟驅動「防禦性公投」政策過程的內在「考量」及其所處外在「情勢」間的關聯性，並對此政策過程涉及的政策與政治問題，提出政策建議。最後則回觀研究歷程，對本文「政策圖像匯聚模式」分析架構進行評估，進而闡述研究心得。 本文研究發現有四：一、特定時點上國家定位問題所隱喻不對稱權力關係已消失、國家定位問題的顯著性高漲、出現兼容了不同對立方信念之問題解決方案等，乃防禦性公投政策過程「情勢」面向的演進成因。二、藍綠政黨聯盟所持具政策過程考量，由複雜走向簡化—「政策圖像」中「偏好圖像」、「議程圖像」、「信念圖像」等接續崩解，則為防禦性公投政策過程「考量」面向的演進成因。三、前述兩者若以本文論理框架整合而論則可定位：防禦性公投政策過程情勢與政策過程考量的外在及內在現狀均衡崩解，乃防禦性公投政策過程的總體演進成因。四、泛藍與泛綠政黨聯盟啟動該項政策過程的主要考量皆有個別政策與政治意義深蘊其中，唯於政策過程演進時刻兩者實已匯聚為一，而執行爭議則為雙方、民間因嶄新政策現狀均衡歧異定位的拉鋸所致。

Taiwan’s “Defensive Referendum Clause” was first enacted in 2004, for representing the objection of Taiwan’s people to being threatened by PRC’s arbitrary and military orientations that always aim to “possess Taiwan”. It was a remarkable political development of Taiwan, despite its contentious nature being supposed to stir up two nationalisms embedded in the complex Taiwan’s political society and history to clash together, had created a potential chance for Taiwan to solve the problem of its historical ambiguous “statehood” disputes domestically, and perhaps internationally. This thesis tries to answer two simple questions inherent in the former political progress of Taiwan, as “why would the two extremely different nationalisms holders in Taiwan, Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Party-Coalitions, decide to facilitate the policy process of Taiwan’s Defensive Referendum Clause?” and “What was the situation in which the two extremely different nationalisms holders in Taiwan, Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Party-Coalitions, decided to facilitate the policy process of Taiwan’s Defensive Referendum Clause?”. Instead of using the current classical policy process models as the analytical tools to work on these two questions, the author developed an alternative model emphasizing the dynamic relationship regularities of actors’ internal equilibrium and actors’ external equilibrium, the “Policy Mapping Model” to find out the answers. And in the conclusion, besides straightening out the answers of the two main questions, further policy prospects relevant to the development of Taiwan’s statehood policy agenda and the evaluation of “Policy Mapping Model” would be also illustrated by the author.

The reasearch shows, first, “the dissolve of the asymmetric power relationships determined by the policy problem itself ”,”the issue salience up-leveling”,and “the solution to the policy problem that could incorporate the different policy actors’ homogeneous belief coming out ” all-together might construct a “sudden time” of policy change, and policy change is just as the outcome of the policy actors’ internal equilibrium collapse with their external eqilibrium crash. Second, the spread of SARS from China in Taiwan, and other semi-structural factors as Taiwan’s 2002 legislative election outcome, China’s power transition process, Bush administration’s way of running up US.-Taiwan military relationship, Chen Shuei-Bian’s increasing power in Taiwan’s domestic politics,Taiwan people’s national consciousness changing, groups lobbyng, had ever affected this policy process.