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完整後設資料紀錄
DC 欄位 | 值 | 語言 |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.advisor | 吳俊傑 | |
dc.contributor.author | Jan-Huey Chen | en |
dc.contributor.author | 陳占慧 | zh_TW |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-06-13T07:00:41Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2005-07-28 | |
dc.date.copyright | 2005-07-28 | |
dc.date.issued | 2005 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2005-07-27 | |
dc.identifier.citation | 吳俊傑與黃葳芃,2000:芙蘿颱風(1990)的數值模擬研究:初始資料與初始化方法影響之探討。大氣科學,28,293-315。
曾忠一,2005:大氣科學中的反問題—反演、分析與同化。國立編譯館 (付印中) Aberson, S. D., and J. L. Franklin, 1999: Impact on hurricane track and intensity forecast of GPS dropsonde observations from the first-season flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aircraft. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 421-427. —–—, 2003: Targeted observations to improve operational tropical cyclone track forecast guidance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1613-1628 Bergot, T., 1999: Adaptive observations during FASTEX: A Systematic survey of upstream flights. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3271–3298. Bishop, C. H., and Z. Toth, 1999: Ensemble transformation and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1748-1765. Burpee, R. W., J. L. Franklin, S. J. Lord, R. E. Tuleya, and S. D. Aberson, 1996: The impact of omega dropsondes on operational hurricane track forecast models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 925-933. Eamnuel, K., and R. Langland, 1998: FASTEX Adaptive Observations Workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 1915–1919. Errico, R. M., 1997: What is an adjoint model? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2577-2591 Gelaro, R., R. Langland, G. D. Rohaly, and T. E. Rosmond, 1999: An assessment of the singular vector approach to targeted observing using the FASTEX data set. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3299-3328. —–—, T. E. Rosmond, and R. Daley, 2002: Singular vector calculations with an analysis error variance metric. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1166-1186. Grell, G. A., Dudhia, J., and Stauffer, D. R. (1994). A description of the fifth-generation Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5). NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-398+STR, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, 122 pp. Joly, A. Coauthors, 1997: The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific objectives and experimental design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1917–1940. Kleist, D. T., and M. C. Morgan, 2005: Interpretation of the structure and evolution of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivity gradients, Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 466–484. Langland, R. H., Z. Toth, R. Gelaro, I. Szunyogh, M. A. Shapiro, S. J. Majumdar, R. Morss, G. D. Rohaly, C. Velden, N. Bond, and C. H. Bishop, 1999: The North Pacific Experiment, NORPEX-98: Targeted observations for improved North American weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1363-1384. Lord, S. J., 1996: The impact on synoptic-scale forecasts over the United States of dropwindsonde observations taken in the northeast Pacific. Preprints, 11 th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Norfolk, VA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 70-71. Majumdar, S. J., C. H. Bishop, R. Buizza, and R. Gelaro, 2002: A comparison of ensemble-transform Kalman-filter targeting guidance with ECMWF and NRL total-energy singular-vector guidance. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 2527-2549 Montani, A., Thorpe A. J., Buizza R., and Unden P., 1999: Forecast skill of the ECMWF model using targeted observations during FASTEX. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 3219–3240. Palmer, T. N., R. Gelaro, J. Barkmeijer, and R. Buizza, 1998: Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 633-653 Pu, Z.-X., S. J. Lord, and E. Kalnay, 1998: Forecast sensitivity with dropsonde and targeted observations. Tellus, 50A, 391-410. Resiner, J., R.J. Rasmussen, and R.T. Bruintjes, 1998: Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124B, 1071-1107. Rohaly, G. D., R. H. Langland and R. Gelaro, 1998: Identifying regions where the forecast of tropical cyclone tracks is most sensitive to initial condition uncertainty using adjoint methods. Preprints, 12th Coference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, Arizona, American Meteorological Society, 337-340. Rosmond, T. E., 1997: A technical description of the NRL adjoint model system, NRL/MR/7532/97/7230, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, Calif., 93943-5502, 62pp. Tuleya, R. E., and S. J. Lord, 1997: The impact of dropwindsonde data on GFDL hurricane model forecasts using global analysis. Wea. and Fore., 12, 307-323. Wu, C. C., T.H. Yen, Y.H. Kuo, and W. Wang, 2002: Rainfall simulation associated with Typhoon Herb (1999) near Taiwan. Part I: The topographic effect. Wea. and Fore., 17, 1001-1015 —–—, T. S. Huang, W. P. Huang, and K. H. Chou, 2003: A new look at the binary interaction: Potential vorticity diagnosis of the unusual southward movement of Tropical Storm Bophs (2000) and its interaction with Supertyphoon Saomai (2000). Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1289-1300. —–—, P. H. Lin, S. D. Aberson, T. C. Yeh, W. P. Huang, J. S. Hong, G. C. Lu, K. C. Hsu, I-I Lin, K. H. Chou, P. L. Lin, and C. H. Liu, 2005a: Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR): An Overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 787-790. —–—, K. H. Chou., Y. Wang, and Y. H. Kuo, 2005b: Tropical cyclone initialization and prediction based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Submitted to J. Atmos. Sci. —–—, P. H. Lin, J. H. Chen, and K. H. Chou., 2005c: Targeted observations of tropical cyclones based on the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector. Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. —–—, P. H. Lin, K. H. Chou., T. C. Yeh, and S. D. Aberson, 2005d: Evaluation of the impact of the DOTSTAR dropsonde data on the numerical models. Submitted to Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Zou, X., F. Vandenberghe, M. Pondeca, and Y.-H. Kuo, 1997: Introduction to adjoint techniques and the MM5 adjoint modeling system. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-435+STR, 110pp. [Available from NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000.] | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://tdr.lib.ntu.edu.tw/jspui/handle/123456789/35604 | - |
dc.description.abstract | 生成於廣大洋面上的颱風,常對人類的生命財產造成重大威脅。為改善對於可能侵襲陸地之颱風的預報與分析,多年來美國一直持續針對大西洋颶風進行飛機偵察觀測的任務,在太平洋地區,自2003年起,在國科會推動的「追風計畫(DOTSTAR)」中,利用飛機搭載科學家,在觀測資料十分稀少的西北太平洋上空進行投擲「投落送 (dropsonde)」的任務,以取得接近台灣之颱風周圍珍貴的大氣資料。在飛行資源及時間的限制下,如何擬定「策略性觀測計畫」,為整體觀測任務中十分重要的環節,而「敏感區域位置」正是其中最為重要的參考依據。
除了追風計畫目前採用的三種預報敏感性結果之外,本研究延續Wu et al. (2005b) 中以「觀測系統模擬實驗 (OSSE)」探討颱風渦旋初始化的工作,使用MM5共軛模式系統,發展一套創新的方法來尋找影響颱風駛流的敏感區域,並進一步獲得影響整體颱風路徑的敏感區域位置。 本研究選用2004年9月的米雷颱風與6月的敏督利颱風做為展示研究之實驗個案,藉由代表颱風駛流的「反應函數」,配合新定義之「共軛模式推導之颱風駛流敏感向量 (ADSSV)」,可以清楚地表現出在觀測時刻對於模擬未來36小時颱風駛流的敏感位置,再綜合觀測時刻對於各不同「驗證時間」的計算結果,可進一步求得影響整體36小時颱風移動路徑的敏感區域位置。 在研究中並針對颱風初始化問題以及模式中忽略水氣影響的部分進行測試分析,且為了將此敏感結果之計算方式應用於即時觀測之中,亦改變部分實驗流程,並檢驗其結果,使其在不影響科學計算結果之下,能夠更順利地進行實際作業。 此方法將在2005年應用於追風計畫及美國大西洋颶風投落送偵察觀測的實際運作之中。 | zh_TW |
dc.description.abstract | Since 2003, a field program has been conducted under the name of Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) (Wu et al. 2005a). For DOTSTAR, the targeted observation is one of the most critical objectives. The important basis to design the observing strategy is to identify the sensitive areas, which would have the critical impact on the numerical forecast results or the fast growth of the forecast error.
In addition to various sensitivity products already adopted in DOTSTAR, a new way to identify the sensitive area for the targeted observation of tropical cyclones based on the MM5 adjoint model has been proposed. By appropriately defining the response functions to represent the steering flow at the verifying time, a simple vector, Adjoint-Derived Sensitivity Steering Vector (ADSSV) has been designed to clearly demonstrate the sensitivity locations at the observing time. Typhoons Meari and Mindulle of 2004 have been selected to demonstrate the use of AFSSV. In general, unique sensitive areas 36 h after the observing time are obtained. The impact of the vortex initialization and the dry assumption on the ADSSV has also been studied. In order to use the ADSSV in the field program (such as DOTSTAR), the procedure of the model calculation has been to meet the realtime need. It is shown that the realtime use of ADSSV is feasible, and the results are fairly consistent with our previous findings. The ADSSV will be implemented and examined in the field project, DOTSTAR in 2005, as well as in the surveillance mission of Atlantic hurricanes conducted by HRD. Further analysis of the results will be very important to validate the use of ADSSV. | en |
dc.description.provenance | Made available in DSpace on 2021-06-13T07:00:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ntu-94-R92229001-1.pdf: 4403427 bytes, checksum: aeb86d01e808d330bdca3e3c33034552 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 | en |
dc.description.tableofcontents | 摘要 I
Abstract II 誌謝 III 目錄 IV 圖表說明 VI 第一章 前言 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.1.1 追風計畫與策略性觀測 1 1.1.2 颱風飛機觀測之發展與演變 2 1.1.3 飛行觀測策略制訂方式的演變與發展 3 1.2 研究動機與目的 6 第二章 研究方法 8 2.1 共軛模式與反應函數 8 2.2 MM5共軛模式系統簡介與設定 10 2.3 實驗設計與實驗流程 12 2.4 分析方法 15 第三章 研究結果 18 3.1 米雷颱風與敏督利颱風個案簡介 18 3.2 控制實驗結果 20 3.2.1 米雷颱風 20 3.2.2 敏督利颱風 23 3.2.3 其他高度層之結果 26 3.3 F48實驗結果 27 3.4 渦旋初始化 28 3.5 乾實驗 30 3.6 ADSSV與目前追風計畫中採用方法之比較 31 第四章 總結 33 4.1 結語 33 4.2 未來展望 38 附錄一 40 附錄二 42 參考文獻 44 表 49 圖 50 | |
dc.language.iso | zh-TW | |
dc.title | 策略性颱風觀測--共軛模式之颱風駛流敏感向量 | zh_TW |
dc.title | Targeted observations based on the adjoint-derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV). | en |
dc.type | Thesis | |
dc.date.schoolyear | 93-2 | |
dc.description.degree | 碩士 | |
dc.contributor.oralexamcommittee | 曾忠一,林博雄,張忍成,黃清勇 | |
dc.subject.keyword | 策略性觀測,共軛模式, | zh_TW |
dc.subject.keyword | targeted observation,adjoint model, | en |
dc.relation.page | 79 | |
dc.rights.note | 有償授權 | |
dc.date.accepted | 2005-07-27 | |
dc.contributor.author-college | 理學院 | zh_TW |
dc.contributor.author-dept | 大氣科學研究所 | zh_TW |
顯示於系所單位: | 大氣科學系 |
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