中國大陸石油需求之實證分析

Abstract

本研究旨在利用中國大陸多項總體經濟數據，來推測未來石油需求的數量以及和總體經濟變數間的關係。中國大陸自2003年超越日本成為全球第二大石油消費國之後，能源消費問題就備受關注，石油不僅做為一種能源物資並且是重要的戰略物資，在經濟成長與能源消費有重大關連性的存在下，石油消費問題值得深入探討。 本研究的分析模型如下：1.ARIMA（自我迴歸整合移動平均模型）利用過去原油消費的季資料和年資料，得出一需求方程式，推估其未來石油需求數量。2.迴歸模型，利用石油的價格、國民每人實質收入當做自變項，石油需求當做應變項，求出一迴歸方程式，了解變數之間的關係。3.共整合檢定和誤差修正模型，使用Johansen共整合檢定石油消費量、人均國民所得和石油價格之間是否存有共整合的關係，如存有共整合向量的存在則再進行誤差修正模型將長短期的因素都給納入考慮。4.建立人均國民所得和石油消費的誤差修正模型後，利用Granger因果關係檢驗石油消費與經濟成長間的關係。 實證結果表示未來的石油消費量是呈現上升的趨勢，但兩個ARIMA模型的消費增加速度有差異的存在。迴歸模型則表示石油實質價格和消費量為反向關係，每人實質所得會造成消費量的增加，當期的石油消費與去年的消費量有最大的關係存在。但在因果關係檢驗上，石油需求量和經濟發展是符合「中立性假說」，兩者為互不影響。

The purpose of this research is to forecast the oil demand in China using the data of macroeconomy and understand the relation between the oil consumption and economy. Mainland China became the second country for oil consumption around the world in 2003. Not only be the materials of energy, but also be the important strategical materials. Therefore, the topic of oil demand in Mainland China is the very valuable to consider. The models of this analysis is following：1.ARIMA models are used the annual and quarterly data to create. To calculate next ten years oil consumption separately and compare with the conclusion which be forecasted by international energy agencies. 2.Regrassion model. Using real oil price, real GDP and oil consumption create model. 3.cointegrating test and Error Correction Model. In order to include the long and short term factors, it uses the error correction method to make the equation better. 4.Granger test. The most interesting part of this topic is to find out what if the relation between the real GDP, the economic development, and oil consumption in Mainland China. The conclusion of this research indicates the oil consumption will increase in the future whatever the speed fast or slow. According to regression model, the rising oil price will decrease the quality of oil consumption. Also, oil consumption will increased by the high personal income. However the biggest factor is the consumption last year. Finally, Granger causality test point out the oil consumption and economical development has not any causal relation in Mainland China.