台灣金融控股公司會計衡量模式之探討

Abstract

本研究主要以93年度金控公司公開財務資訊，網站揭露與重大訊息為基礎，輔以交易所及相關主管機關所提供的產業資訊或公開資訊，並透過分析調整出三大類的新資訊:調整後淨值，調整後EPS與輔助評量指標，並以市價做為回推驗證此三類指標有用性的基準。 對金控公司與金融產業的現況分析，可瞭解銀行業仍是金融業的最大組成與核心，也是各金控公司積極發展的重點所在；金控公司因涵括不同金融產業，收入與支出的表達在不同行業有其呈現的差異性，資產負債結構亦各有不同風險報酬與結構特殊性，都是需要深入探討其意義;研究過程中，雖許多會計衡量有其原則可循，但人為判斷的裁量仍左右了報表品質，從公開資訊得到的調整數以銀行的呆帳評估與壽險業的保單負債與資產價值為最大的變數，此為外在投資人最難短期評估真象的所在。 金融控股公司及其子公司所處的產業普遍有過度競爭現象，金融產業較屬發展成熟階段具資本與勞力密集的漸進式變化的特性，整體金控體質變化或獲利改善皆需較長時間才能達成，故公司的真正公平淨值變動有其穩定性與可估計性成為投資人投資價格的最重要參考準據，經合理調整後的年底淨值成為推估當月底收盤價或次月底收盤價之有用指標;相對的原財報EPS或調整後EPS因屬成熟產業，投資人並不預期高獲利或高成長，且獲利的上昇可能相伴風險性提高，故對股價反應關連性相對不明顯;透過各項公開資訊所建立的輔助評量指標，可能因其為投資人需投入相當時間才能取得與整理的資訊，並無法證明此輔助指標模式與投資人決定股價有明顯關連。整體而言，合理公允的淨值所表彰的指標已是12月底或1月份收盤價的良好推估變數，其他指標的加值效果皆不大。

Based on disclosed information on the Internet, government data, and published financial information of Financial Holding Companies in Taiwan, this report investigates the effect of adjusted net assets, adjusted Earnings Per Share and supplementary information on stock price of Financial Holdings Companies in Taiwan. According to the analytical study of Financial Holdings Companies and financial industries, a key finding indicates that banking remains the core and dominant part of the overall financial industries and the focus of aggressive corporate development of each financial holding company. The varieties of financial sectors in which subsidiaries of Financial Holding Companies in Taiwan operate give rise to different ways of revenue and expense expression, and each financial holding company has its own way of structuring asset and liability component which presents a different risk-and-return model. Information obtained from public domain of both the Non-Performing Loans of banks and embedded value of life insurance companies are considered as the most difficult issues to evaluate by investors. The empirical results indicate that adjusted net asset value of a company is a better indicator for evaluating year-end stock price or the stock price of the following January. In contrast, adjusted EPS and its supplementary information are not significantly relevant to stock price.