賽局理論於軍事決策運用之研究 －以第一次波灣戰爭為例

Abstract

中文摘要 本篇文章乃應用賽局理論來探討美軍於波灣戰爭中雙方賽局策略運用及研討美國與伊拉克雙方，在各個不同階段時所應採取的最適策略。 本文所運用的理論基礎仍是賽局大師謝林在軍事方面運用的相關著作諸如囚犯困境與跳脫囚犯困境、嚇阻與威脅、談判、風險控管、猝然攻擊等，並以波灣戰爭的戰史驗證之。 波灣戰爭中，美國運用諸般手段，操弄訊息；訊息之不對稱，造成對預期報酬解讀不同，影響軍事決策及手段；格拉斯大使之言行、美軍海上攻擊、「伊拉克大規模毀滅武器之情報」等，均影響深遠且鉅大。如何正確蒐集及研判訊息，消除訊息的不對稱，是軍事決策最重要的課題之一，誰能掌控訊息，誰就有較大成功公算。由是觀之，藉由適切操弄訊息不對稱，造成軍事決策的誤判，可以有效掌控戰爭的發生、擴大、延長與終止。運用及製造訊息不對稱為賽局所必須考量的因素；就此觀點審視，美國於第一次波灣戰爭的作為，實為成功典範。 波灣戰爭美國於徹底擊潰伊拉克軍隊，伊拉克宣佈無條件投降、收復科威特國土後，認為已達成解救科威特及懲罰海珊之目的；雙方戰後所形成結果為一脆弱的均衡，其基礎薄弱，如何維繫，考驗雙方領導人的智慧。「贏得戰爭容易，若無成功之終戰、媾和與重建，不可能贏得和平」。第一次世界大戰凡爾賽和約與波灣戰爭終戰均面臨這個相同的嚴肅議題。 瞭解賽局、認識戰爭，創造「不戰而屈人之兵」之最高用兵藝術，進而預防戰爭，才是全人類之福。

Abstract The aim of the paper is to make a research on the U.S application of the Game Theory and most appropriate strategies of different phases during Desert Storm Operation. The model of the research based on Game Theory “guru” Schelling’s related military concepts, such as “prisoner dilemma”, “exit prisoner dilemma”, “deterrence and threat”, “bargaining”, “risk control”, and “preemptive strike” etc, which were verified by the Gulf War experience. During the Desert Storm Operation, the America manipulated all means to control information. The asymmetrical information resulted to the different interpretations of the expected benefits. For example, April Glaspie, the ambassador to Iraq at that time, whose misconducts and inappropriate remarks, the information of U.S assault from the sea, and Iraq Weapons of Mass Destruction Intelligence, which influenced the warfare significantly and profoundly. Therefore, how to precisely gather and evaluate information, and get rid of asymmetrical one are the most critical issues of military decision-making. In other words, the one who precisely controls information, the one who owns bigger probability of success. From the perspective, the miscalculated military decision making through the proper manipulation of asymmetrical information could effectively control the war broke out, enlargement, protraction, and termination. Employing and making asymmetrical information is an essential consideration of Game Theory. Form the point of view; the actions employed in Desert Storm Operation could be highly regarded as a successful model. The goals of Desert Storm Operation were to liberate Kuwait, force Iraq’s unconditional surrender, and punish Saddam Hussein, which seemed to be achieved out of the America’s view. The U.S and Iraq formed a vulnerable equilibrium post conflict. How to maintain the equilibrium depends on bilateral leaders’ wits. To win a war easy, but to get peace without a successful conflict termination, accommodation, and reconstruction strategy is impossible. The Versailles Treaty of WWI and Desert Storm Operation all faced the same tough issue. To understand the Game Theory, know the war, create the noblest art of war essence “to conquer the foe without resorting to the war”, and even further to prevent war, are really something welfares for human beings.