被動元件產業供需模型與競爭分析

Abstract

被動元件產業從2000年到2006年，從上一個產業高峰邁入下一個產業高峰，雖然產業榮景重現，但是整體產業面貌已經不同。整個產業在前幾年因為產能供給過剩，導致廠商之間互相殺價競爭，讓產業內競爭者皆損失慘重，在痛定思痛之後，產業內秩序慢慢重整，不堪虧損的廠商漸漸退出市場，留在產業內的則透過購併，讓廠商家數大幅減少，且形成隱性合謀的默契，不以價格為唯一競爭的武器，產業從純粹競爭模式走到競合。 本研究從產業特性出發，討論在產品同質性高、擴廠資金投入相對少以及受到季節性需求影響等因素下，被動元件產業呈現的風貌，並運用五力模型分析產業內供應商、客戶、潛在進入者、替代品以及業內競爭者的狀況。為了瞭解產業的原貌，進一步運用供需模型討論，由於被動元件屬於衍生性需求，必須先把焦點放在下游終端產品的需求，此處運用擴散模型預估被動元件下游應用，包括電腦、手機以及遊戲機未來的市場需求狀況，最後推估被動元件的未來需求情形。在供給面，透過歷史資料的蒐集以及目前已經宣布擴廠的資訊，對接下來兩年市場的供給量提出預估。最終對供需均衡狀況做探討，可以發現產業供過於求的情形一直持續著，假使供過於求一直存在產業內，則產業內將一直陷入無止盡的惡性競爭當中，因此不能只用供需模型解釋產業內的運作。 透過賽局理論分析廠商之間的互動情形，可以發現在供過於求的情形下，雙方廠商都會用殺價來競爭，在供給小於需求的情形下，則廠商皆會採取擴廠的行動以獲得最大的利益，因此可以看出，無論供需狀況如何變化，因為廠商之間的互動情形會讓整體產業的獲利下降，廠商無法從中獲得好處。針對上述的情況，本研究從提高進入障礙和降低產業內競爭強度的角度提出可行的策略建議，希望廠商能夠透過彼此的互動情況，達成雙贏的局面。

From 2000 to 2006, passive component industry goes for another industry booming. After several years of over capacity, manufacturers competed by price war and got great loss. To rethink their own strategy, they came out more orderly industry environment. The great loss companies left out the industry, the remained companies adopt M&A to reduce the number of company in passive component industry. Besides, companies have the tacit collude agreement and do not rely on price strategy as the only competitive method. The whole industry goes from pure competitive to co-opetition. This research first finds out the industry characteristics, including product homogeneous, low investment capital, seasonal demand, etc. then applies five-force model to analyze the situation of customers, suppliers, new entrants and substitutes. To understand the whole picture of industry, it further uses demand-supply model to analyze. Because passive component is derived demand, we should know the end product demand first. This research uses diffusion model to forecast end product demand, such as computer, mobile phone and game console. After that it can find out the passive component demand. On the supply side, we forecast the industry supply through historical data and announced expansion plan. Finally, we can understand the equilibrium of demand and supply and find out that over capacity always exists. If over capacity is always there, the industry will fall into vicious circle. To solve the conflict of demand-supply, the research use game theory to analyze the interaction between manufacturers. When supply over demand, companies would use price strategy to compete. When demand over supply, companies would fall into capacity expansion contest. No matter what kind of situation, companies will result in low margin because of their interaction. Therefore, at the end of this research, we suggest some strategy to deter new entrants and reduce competitive intensity that makes it possible to keep the profit in industry. Hope that by change the game payoff could make the win-win situation happen.